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GEO-1HB3-CHAP 4.docx

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McMaster University
Michael Mercier

CHAPTER 4 AN INTRODUCTION TO GLOBAL POPULATION DISTRIBUTION& CHANGE Population geography • Population Geography  Demography: the study of population  Population geography: the study of the spatial expressions of population • Where do they live, work? – E.g. what is the spatial distribution of population • How do they live? – E.g. how densities settle population? – E.g. how density populations are? • What resources do they use? • What are their conditions of health and well-being? • Using global perspective • What is the current (approx.) global population  7.06 billion • What was the global population (approx.) in 1994 (the average year of birth for students in this class)?  5.60 billion  An increase of close to 1.5 billion people in lifetime • What is the worlds largest (by population) country  China=1.45billion  India=1.2 billion  US=0.31billion (315 million)  What is Canada's population  Canada=35 million (ranked #35. behind Algeria) Population growth • Global Population Growth:  Major thresholds and time periods: • AD1=300M • 1800=1 billion • 1927=2 billion • 1960=3 billion • 1975=4 billion • 1987=5 billion • 1999=6 billion • 2012=7 billion • Feb.2013=7.06 billion • 2050(projected)=9billion • World population: growing at 1.2% per year  Sounds Small? • Population will double (~14 billion) in life time  Will rate change between now and then? • Experts believe so • • Beyond simple growth, the key issues are:  Where will it occur? (Less develop world)  E.g. of 131 million births in 2005. Only about 13 million (10%) were born in the more developed world CHAPTER 4 • Beyond simple growth, the key issues are (cont‟d): 2. AND what does this growth mean? Who will benefit and who will suffer from it most? And what will the consequences be? • Health-care and social services • Food (is there problem accessing to food?) • Resources (energy, water) • Conflict? Global population distribution • Area of clustered settlement: Europe, India, china • Area of dispersed settlement: Africa Global population distribution: uneven • Patterns of Concentrated Population  90% north of the equator (northern hemisphere)  90% on less than 20% of then land (high density)  Low-lying &coastal areas Population density • Measures of Population Density:  Arithmetic (crude): number of people unit area of land  Physiological: # of people per unit area of arable land CHAPTER 4 Population density (cont’d) • Overpopulation- recognition that the environment can only sustain a certain population size  Carrying Capacity: maximum # of people that an area can support on a sustainable basis the set of natural resources and prevailing technology-see ecological foot print • Have we reached our carrying capacity? – If not, will we? – If so, what does this mean for the suture of our planet? POPULATION GROWTH THEORY&DYNAMICS: MALTHUS & BEYOND • Globally, population is understood with reference to two factors: fertility (births and mortality (deaths) we are looking at the population change and globally death and birth are the only way to measure this • P1=Po+ (B-D) add all the births minus the death plus the population this year - Regionally though, population is also influenced by population movement- looking at a particular country or province etc.- migration (immigrants move in to the country and emigration who are the ones that leave the country - P1=Po+(B-D)+(I-E) Fertility: Measures& factors 1. Crude birth rate (CBR): this is how we get measures of fertility CBR= (B/P) x1000 so births divided by population in that place- it doesn't‟t account for the differences in the population. We‟re interested in the population that are females that can reproduce • True fertility: 2. General fertility rate (or fecundity) (GFR): GFR=B/population of females between the ages 15-49) X1000 • Generally we are interested in the females that can reproduce and are of reproductive age 3. TFR: the average number of children a women will have in her reproductive time frame and this varies from country to country. Currently globally the average is 2.8 children. • TFR=2.8; rates of c.2.1-2.5 are considered “replacement” women need to have slightly more than 2 children that way they can replace themselves and their partner and they have a buffer because things such as childhood deaths, sterile are things that could go wrong • Many factors influence the rates of fertility- culture (acceptance of abortion, contraceptive use), economic, biological etc. • Total Fertility Rate- this graph is showing the measures of fertility rates of populations. Here in Canada we are less than the total fertility replacement rate. Therefore we are not replacing ourselves CHAPTER 4 Mortality: Measures 1. Crude death rate (CDR): CDR=(Deaths in a year/ population of country in that year) x1000 its not particularly specific because there are differences in the age structure of the populations ex. If there are more people that are old therefore greater death rate 2. Infant mortality rate (an age adjusted rate) (IMR): • IMR=(deaths ages 0 to 1/births (the population of infants))x1000 this is an age adjusted rate and you can do this for any age • Rates vary in Canada is 5-10 per 1000 in the developed world it is low the highest end such as Africa and sierra Leon is like 150-175 per 1000 3. Life expectancy: the average number of years of life. Canada, japan etc. are expected to live well into 80 years. There are countries where life expectancy is like 40 in Africa where they are fighting aids • Rates vary Mortality: patterns • Crude Death Rate: places like Afghanistan its high. In southern part of Africa there is most struggle with HIV Population natural increases: patterns • Population Natural Increase: • High natural increase • Low growth and population decline • Mali, Niger, chad D.R Congo have the highest population increases • Botswana they have a low growth even though they have high fertility they have lots of deaths being the middle of HIV pandemic • Russia has a population decline Population growth theory: Malthus • Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834)  An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798) this was just after we had hit the 1 billion milestone  Malthus‟ argument: 1. There is food supply increase- linear- we can only increase food as humans linearly  2. Population increase- exponential- he studies rats and bunnies and he  Time Periods: 1. Food > Population 2. Food = Population 3. Food < Population CHAPTER 4 • Preventative “checks” on population: people will willingly choose to have fewer children and sometimes fertility rates will drop or perhaps economic situations change. This includes delayed marriage • Positive checks on population: he suggested that war, when there isnt enough food the population fights and we then kill people and this wipes off enough people. Famine is another one that can cause the population to wipe out. And this growth and crash is common in rabbit populations. • Was Malthus correct? No. Because he forgot about the human ability to modify our food supply which happened in the 19 centaury the green revolution Population Growth theory: DTT • Demographic Transition • Premise- the general description based on the experiences on the countries in the developed world. Economic development affects the population development. When they become wealthier they transition from one stage to another and the transition causes change in mortality and the birth rates • Changes in population over time • Variations in crude birth and death rates Stage 1. High birth rate and there is a high death rate- ex maybe there is a famine, plague or war, diseases is what causes big fluctuation. But for the most part, they fluctuate and the little differences between BR and DR causes not much changes Stage 2. High BR and declining DR- this is when countries start to develop they make lots of kids and those kids ALL grow up to have children Stage 3. Declining BR and declining DR People realize that they don‟t need As much children and women are More empowered Stage 4. Low BR and low DR- this is Mostly how Canada is now • To what extent does this DT model fit with experiences in the developed and developing world? CHAPTER 4  Developed world- it fits it perfectly because the demographic transition theory was based on countries such as Canada- developed countries  Developing
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