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Lecture

Lecture 4: Population Aging.docx

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Department
Health, Aging and Society
Course
HLTHAGE 1BB3
Professor
Jessica Gish
Semester
Fall

Description
September 23, 2013 PopulationAging Overview: Demography  Sub-specialization within sociology  Studies the characteristics of population and the dynamics of population change  Presents a demographic picture of the size and structure of cohorts  Identifies ―variables‖ or social factors that bring about change in a population PopulationAging: United Nations  A population is old when over 10% of it is over 65 years of age 2011 Census Data: Canada  The number of Canadians aged 65+ increased by 14.1% between 2006 and 2011  The number of children aged 14 and under increased by only 0.5%  Lowest elderly population—Alberta o Job industry is tailored for young workers  Saskatchewan—high fertility rates  Population aged 4 and under increased 11% between 2006 and 2011 o Highest growth rate for this age group (baby boom “echo”) since 1956-1961  Among the Prairies Sex Ratio  Canada (2011): 4.8 million people 65+ o 56% are women  When 85+ is considered old age, women make up 70% or more of the elderly population  # of men to the # of women o By age 65: 125 women for 100 men o By age 80: 170 women per 100 men o By age 100: 500 women for 100 men Social Implications  Widowhood  No history in the workforce: lose access to health plan when husband dies Explaining the Gender Gap in Life Expectancy  Gender differences in infant mortality o More males born than females—173 males: 103 females o Males have higher IMR Life Expectancy: Closing of the Gap Between Men and Women  6 years to 4.5 years (historically)  Life expectancy gap is closing o More women in the workforce: negative effect on health o Men are engaging healthier lifestyles o Losing less men to wars o Advancement in public health measures Speed of PopulationAging: Years for population aged 65+ to double from 7% to 14%  Population is old if 14% are 65+  Structural Lag: people change faster than social structures Life Span  Theoretical max that a human being/animal can live (120 for humans) Measuring PopulationAging  Median age of population  Percentage of population aged 65+  Population pyramids  Dependency Ratio MedianAge  Age at which half population is old and half is young o MedAge > 30 = Old o MedAge < 30 = Young Canadian Data 1983 = 20 (2006) 2011 = 40.6 2031 = 48 Percentage aged 65+  Apopulation is old if at least 10% of the population is aged 65+  In Canada (2011), the percentage of the population aged 65+ was 14.8%. Population Pyramid  Two bar graphs laid back to back  Conceptual and visual image of populations age-sex structure  Males and females on opposite sides Expansive  Early stage  High birth & death rates  High number of infants and children  Not many old people—short life expectancy  Triangle shape Constrictive  Intermediate  Fewer infants  Bulge in the middle  Mortality declining Stationary  Cylindrical  # of people born = # of people dying Epidemiological Transition Theory 1. Age of Petulance and Famine 2. Age of Receding Pandemics 3. Age of Degenerative and Human-made Diseases 4. Age of Delayed Degenerative Diseases? 5. Age of New Infectious and Parasitic Diseases? Stats Can Graph: 2006 Census  Constrictive o Bulge in the middle from Baby Boom o Once Baby Boomers die, it will become cylindrical  Smallest Cohort: Parents of Baby Boomers Total Fertility Rate in Canada, 1926-2005  Decline during Great Depression  Moderate increase from 1930 – 1940  Baby Bust cohort o Huge decline  Invention of birth control 1961  Feminist movement  Delayed marriage o Has stayed in decline ever since Causes of PopulationAging  Decreased fertility * most significant cause  Immigration/Migration  Decreased Morality Decreased Fertility Canada (2012) : 1.59 Migration/Immigration  Migration can ―young‖ a population (i.e., province)  Immigration plays the smallest role in population aging Decreased Mortality  Decline in death
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