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Lecture 12

Political Science 1G06 2012 Lecture 12a overhead transition (1).doc

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Political Science
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Todd Alway

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Political Science 1G06 2012 Lecture 12a Transitions to democracy - Is authoritarianism anachronistic? - Is the spread of democracy on a global level inevitable? - Historical trends: - According to Samuel Huntington’s The Third Wave of Democracy, democracy has expanded in 3 major historical waves - Wave 1: - 1820s until 1920s – 29 democracies - Reverse wave beginning in 1922 – 12 democracies - Wave 2: - 1943 until 1962 – 36 democracies - Reverse wave throughout 1960s – 30 democracies - Wave 3: - 1974 until ? – 117 states (Freedom House – as of 2012) - The question now being asked is whether democracy will continue its forward march, whether the advance of democracy has stopped, or even whether we are on the precipice of a third reverse wave rd - Huntington argued that there were five factors contributing to the “occurrence and timing of the 3 wave” - 1. “A Deepening legitimacy crisis in authoritarian regimes that had based their authority on a means- ends justification” - By the 1970s it began to become apparent that at least some authoritarian states - former high growth states - were stagnating economically - Particularly centrally planned economies - 2. Rapid economic growth in 1960s, 70s, 80s - At the same time, other market-based authoritarian states experienced sustained economic growth - However, rather than offering further legitimacy to the authoritarian government, the growth produced the social conditions that would undo authoritarian leadership o Middle class - 3. Change in the Political Culture of the Catholic Church - For most of its existence the Catholic Church has been a defender of tradition and deference to authority - This spiritual support of deference was functionally useful to authoritarian regimes - However, the position of parts of the Catholic Church began to change following the Second Vatican Council of the mid-1960s - Out of this Council emerged a political-religious doctrine known as Liberation Theology - “Roughly ¾ of the countries that transitioned to democracy between 1974-1989 were Catholic” - 4. “The Policy orientation of external actors” - European Community - If you want to become a member of the EC, with all the economic benefits that this provides, you must first be a
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