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POLSCI 2I03 (101)
Andrew Lui (26)
Lecture 19

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McMaster University
Political Science
Andrew Lui

Three articles about China’s rising power. About 80% of the US public does believe that war is necessary. Europe: but 80% of Europeans think that it is never okay to engage in war, there are no grounds on which it can be legitimatize. Kagan says that it is a valid hypothesis that because the Europeans have gone through such destruction, and are more adverse to war than maybe Canadians and US citizens. He however will reject it later. He says it is not so much sociological that Europeans are adverse to war, it is IR. He means that it is power; it is because that the Europeans are declining. Their power in IR according to Kagan, is declining so they see no value reason or utilitarian reason for war to be fought. Instead they say we need more organizations, more order. What he is saying that Europeans want something that is un-American. As a result of that they are increasingly inward looking and are less and less concerned with what is happening with IR on a global scale. Evidence shows that Europeans can afford to have this arrogance because their security concerns are taken care of by US. Very similar arguments used for Canada, we market our foreign policy as soft power because we do not need to demonstrate hard power. Does Europe speak as a common bloc today? Or will they emerge as one bloc and speak on economics, security, etc together and as one voice. After World War II, some people said it is time for Europe to become one voice, not just as an economic bloc but also militarily, there should be a standing European army. But we haven’t seen this primarily because of the diverging concerns of the countries within Europe. Europe has its own financial problems, it has liquidity problems. So some European countries are questioning whether the countries with such concerns should be part of it, or just become a bit farther from the rest. Does the future rest on Europe? Or is the change in IR dynamics moving to China, India or Asia? In Europe, we have seen Britain go from a big empire to not powerful state. Europe is also increasingly inward looking sociologically but otherwise, because within the last 10 years Europe started to talk about reducing racism around but specifically in sports. In early st 21 century there were numerous instances in Spain, against black players. This was not long ago. Many of these racist tendencies started happening only until the last few decades. Within the context of IR, many countries in Europe look inward not just in Europe but within their own country. This has an impact because they are not even part of the real thing, many of these countries look at themselves to be the center even now. Great Britain, was not conquezant of its own thing after its empire fell. Britain saw Canada and other countries still as its dominions; they did not even repay their loans to Canada. This is true of all the empires that rose and fell. But where is Canada in this global world of IR? We see the rise of new emerging powers like China. India is farther off down the road. China: came to Copenhagen with the knowledge that other countries like US and Canada wanted to shame it over its use of carbon emissions, CFCs etc. but instead China turned out to shame Canada and US because today they are the main investors in green energy. But why will China do this? You need a strong economic engine to keep your power going. From a realist framework, power matters and so the economy matters. Since Deng Xia King came to power, he introduced a series of reforms within the Chinese economy. Since those reforms China has grown its GDP upward 14%. In 2008, yes China slowed down but only 8.9% while we in North America suffered a recession. Their economic engine is steady, the amount of money and taxes the Chinese economy is fascinating. But they are still called a developing country under the Kyoto protocol because their per capita income is low. Within the Chinese economic boon, some people predict that by 2015 it will be double the economy of US. Most of these have been reversed and say that the Chinese economy will take over the US economy by 2020. Where will all this money get translated into? In to military power, aggression or something more benign. How will China seek to change the IR institutions, organizations, etc? How will it play for the third world countries? Because China thinks of itself as a voice of the third world. Can we think of China much the same way as the Soviet Union, can there be a balance of power? Should we think of China as another
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