POLSCI 1G06 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Arms Control, Hedley Bull, The Possession
14 Oct 2015
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Political science 1g06 2013 ii lecture 7b: to proliferate or not to proliferate. The fact that the third world war did not happen is taken by some as sufficient proof that nuclear deterrence was effective. In many respects, this is a critical case for proponents of nuclear deterrence. This was a case where it was least likely for nuclear deterrence theory. Despite all these factors weighing against deterrence, and the fact that the conflict went right to the brink, in the end a full scale war was avoided. The possession of nuclear weapons means that the costs of aggression will always outweigh any benefits that aggression could bring. In general, then, if more states are armed with nuclear power, all states would have to be more cautious in their foreign policy. Even if we accept the logical persuasiveness of nuclear deterrence theory (and not everyone does), it does not necessarily follow that nuclear proliferation would result in increased security.
