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Judith Shedden

thMarch 27 2013 Psych 2H03 Human LearningCognition ThinkingThinkingclearly we as humans are pretty good at the thinkinghowever as usual we have some flawsJudgmentour goalshow do people actually reasonHow does this differ from logical or accurate reasoningwhy is it good to know thisPower of propaganda or slander on decision makingDamage of stereotypesHumans are an Illogical Racewhat is our problem some say emotionthe great decisions of human life have as a rule more to do with the instincts and other mysterious unconscious factors than with conscious will and wellmeaning reasonableness Carl Junghere we will argue that it is mostly our use of heuristics that we use to deal with the world efficientlyheuristics help us deal efficiently with the worldcognitive system is doing things efficiently through schema perceptionit is a complex world out there Can never evaluate all of the evidence Were all flying by the seats of our pants We use heuristics to help us to make decisions in light of imperfect informationHeuristics also create the errorsJudgmentidealized reasoningformal logicCould resemble data what is this idealDeductionStart with general conclusion make a decision about a specific caseWhat is used in formal logicTop down approach starting with the general making details about the specificsEx all oranges are fruit all fruit grow on trees therefore all oranges grow on treesinductionstart with a specific casefact draw general conclusionsall the tigers observed in this region have black stripes on orange fur therefore the tigers native to this region have black stripes on orange furinductive reasoning can get us into trouble not always in obvious waysnormative vs descriptivewhat people actually do is FAR from ideal reasoningeg attribute substitution heuristics availability representativenessJudgment Heuristicsavailability heuristicwhich events do we think of when we are evaluating certain situationsdo more words in English start with R or K or are there more that have R or K as the third letterDo more words in English end with the pattern n or with ing easier to think of words that start with a certain letterEasier to access our lexicon alphabeticallyWords more available to you are the ones that start with R or K so people estimate that there is more of themDecision you make is working with the things that are available to you while you are making the decisionfrequency of events or what with think is the frequency is important in making decisionswhat we think has happened beforefor judgment need to be able to judge frequencies of events we dont have very good estimates of frequenciesmemory is crucialAvailabilityKahneman and Tverskypeople us availability to judge frequencyHeuristics are good except when they are notWe remember things better when they happen more oftenOften are sound judgmentWe remember the things that have been selected for us by the mediaLoose track of the actual frequencyCan lead to a lot of bad behaviourVivid example is used to support a claim or a biasPeople are swayed by individual personal examplesWe remember the anecdote over the statisticsLottery ticketsHomeless are mentally illArabs are terroristsCar crashes vs plane crashesHomicide vs diabetesSafety of vaccinationThese stories are all more availablethe Von Restorff effectadvertisement uses this a loteffects availability of memoryAKA isolation effect or distinctiveness principleMemory is better for things that stand out things that are distinctive isolated humourous bizarre flagged etcsolo or taken membersbetter memory for solo members of groupsthis means people systematically misperceive minoritiesmore extreme judgmentsbottom line when looking for evidence we look for event frequencyTo estimate frequency we use the availability heuristicWhat is available is highly influenced by memory and all those things that influence memoryndApril 2 2013 Anchoring and Adjustmentestimates of frequencystart from a point ANCHOR and move up or downgive yourself only 5 seconds to estimate the number 12345678and the next one again 5 seconds to estimate 87654321average estimate for the first sequence was 512 for the second was 2250KahnemanTversky 1974How long is the Mississippi RiverLonger or shorter than 500 milesLonger or shorter than 5000 milesthe river is actually 2348 miles longthe 500 group estimated 1000 milesthe 5000 group estimated 2000 milespeople use even completely unreliable number as an anchor and go from thereeg generated via a random number generatorproblem hard to put aside original estimateswhether right or wrond and even if subjects know it is not reliable will serve as an anchorex diagnosis of patientsand applicationhow much would you like to donate 500 and getting lowermuch better idea than 10 and getting higherRepresentativeness Heuristicassume homogeneity that all members ofacategory are the sameassume that each member of a category is representative of that categorycategory homogeneityif youve seen only a few examples of a category assume that all of the category members are like thatdevelop stereotypenote that representativeness isnt a completely invalid reasoning strategy just that it will lead to some mistakes
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