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some basic probability concepts (1).docx

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September 18 , 2012 Stats 2B03: Statistical Methods for Science Chapter 3: Some Basic Probability Concepts (1) 3.2-3.4 Probability - sample space, S for an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes - example: in a family of 3 children  S={BBB, GBB. BGB, BBG, GGB, GBG, BGG, GGG}  S ={0, 1, 2, 3} (# of boys) NOT EQUALLY LIKELY - an event E is a subset of the sample space that satisfies a given condition - example: E= “exactly 2 boys” = {GBB, BGB, BBG} - basic rule of probability: if the outcomes in S are equally likely then the probability of E is ( ) - example:  p(exactly 2 boys)=⅜  p(all girls)=⅛ - some rules:  Rule P1: 0≤P(E)≤1  Rule P2: P(E)=1-P( complement  Where “E complement” is the event that E does not occur. Note that E complement is the opposite of E  Example: P(at least one boy) = 1-P(no boys) = 1-⅛ = ⅞ - two events are mutually exclusive if
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