Friday Jan 17
Need to seek balance between boldness and caution.
There are almost always opportunities foregone when we take precautions, and danger
accepted when we do not
- Involuntary seems to be more risky (nuclear meltdown) compared to voluntary risk
(mountain climbing) due to understanding of the process.
- So we’re not good at logically figuring out risk.
So going back to the nuclear power plant on Lake Ontario shore near Kingston:
1. Understand the Hazard (in general)
2. Determine the Risk from that hazard for the region of interest (Risk = Prob. Haz. X Sever.
Haz) (P H S ) H
3. Determine ways to reduce P anH/or S H
(Example) for an Avalanche hazard in a given region, how can we reduce S to essHntially 0?
Don’t have people go there.
4. Do a “Cost Benefit” analysis.
Determines what you can “afford” to do
- Cost Benefit Analysis
- Economic + Environmental + Social + ‘Personal Choice’
- What risks are you willing to take for what benefits
5. Implement Mitigation techniques if warranted (and to the extent that you choose)
Understanding the Hazard
1. What causes earthquakes?
2. Where do earthquakes occur?
3. What energy do they release?
4. What exactly causes damage?
Faults (cause earth