GPHY 209 Lecture Notes - Lecture 8: Weather Lore, Computer Simulation, Climatology
26 Nov 2017
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Document Summary
Weather lore: rhymes, anecdotes, adages related to the human desire to predict weather, a huge role in human history, consider the advantage of knowing what weather tomorrow brings. What is a forecast: forecasts issued by the meteorologist service of canada, can find forecasts online for many cities/towns across canada, split into two parts, regular forecast (up to 48 hours, extended forecast (three to seven day, brief) Icons and text forecasts: pop included on icons between 30-70% Types of forecasts: (no single correct way to do a forecast) Weather and chaos: ensemble forecasting, a range of possible outcomes, can define an uncertainty around a forecast (middle range temp, diagram, circle= uncertainty could be starting anywhere within, deterministic forecast. Seasonal forecasts: often misunderstood, do not predict for individual days but rather for average conditions, forecast below, near and above (cid:494)normal(cid:495) Lecture 2: atmospheric circulation and pressure distribution: driving factor is latitudinal imbalances. Surface winds: three cell-model works best to describe surface winds.
