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Lecture

Case Study.doc


Department
Accounting
Course Code
ACC 110
Professor
Marla Spergel

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Sean Xiao and Shangara Flora 12/12/2011
Case Study #2
(Theoretical Probability)
The appeal of Dice games is rooted in the fact that when two or more Dice are thrown
simultaneously, a beautiful interaction occurs. Before the initial throw the Dice are in fact separate
entities. However, once multiple Dice are thrown, the totals they create (arrived at by adding all the
values together) unbalance the games in which they are being used into various channels of chance
and strategy. Based on the number of Dice thrown, certain totals become increasingly more likely
than others. As more and more Dice are thrown together at once, the expected outcomes begin to
fluctuate and alter the strategy that a player may use accordingly.
This game was inspired by the famous ‘Roulette.’ The players are supposed to guess which side of
the die shows up. The players will first place their bets on 1, 2, and 3,4,5,6 and then the "dealer"
will roll 3 dice simultaneously. Payouts are 1:1 if the chosen numbers shows up once (on any of
the 3 dice), 5:1 if the chosen no shows up twice, and 30:1 if the chosen number appears on all 3
dice.
So, the expected return is 30*(1/216) +5*(1/12) +1*(75/216)-1*(75/216) = 0.947%. This
percentage is slightly in favour of the casino. Theoretically, this game is declared to be fair.
Values (1,2,3,4,5,6) PROBABILITY (%) DEFINITION /PAYOFF
1 Matching 3x25/216 = 75/216 = 34.72 1:1
2 Matching 1/36* C(3,2)= 1/12 = 8.33 5:1
3 Matching 1/216 = 0.463 30:1
0 Matching 100-34.72+8.33+0.463=
56.487
Lose investment
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