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Lecture 3

Lecture 3 - Global Population Patterns.docx

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GEO 108
Peter Kedron

Chapter 3: Global Population Patterns Global Population Distribution - Hunters and gatherers with small population - In 2010, world population 6.8 billion - Most population located along coastal areas and the floodplains of major river systems - Ten countries account for two-thirds of the world’s population - Figure 3.1 – For most of human existence, population levels were low and growth rates were zero. Only with the Industrial Revolution that created the modern age did growth rates begin to rise Population Growth over Time and Space - 76 million people each year (about Mexico-size) o 208,000 each day, 2.4 per second - Some countries are losing population o Japan, Russia, some in Europe - How long gst it take to add each billion o 1 – from beginning of people until 1850 o 2 – 80 years (1850-1930) rd o 3 – 30 years (1931 – 1960) o 4 – 16 years (1960 – 1976) th o 5 – 11 years (1976 – 1987) o 6 – 12 years (1987 – 1999) - Figure 3.2: Population map of the world, with one dot representing 10,000 people. Population density in East Asia and South Asia is extremely high - Figure 3.3: Cartogram of world population. This map shows the area of each country in proportion to its population. - Asia has the largest population o In 2008 – 4.1 billion - In 2010, 6 of the 10 most populated countries are in Asia o China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Bangladesh, Pakistan - Other Regions o Africa – 14% o Europe – 11% o Latin America – 8.6% o North America – 5% - Three fourths of the world’s people live in developing regions Population Density - Average number of people per unit area, usually per square mile or square kilometer - Several countries with large populations have relatively low population densities – United States - Bangladesh is the world’s most crowded country, 148 million people, is the size of Iowa - Three of the 10 most densely populated countries are economically developed o Netherlands o Japan o Belgium Factors Influencing Population Distribution - Physical environment - Economic and political organization o Labor markets, job opportunities, infrastructure - Demographic components o Fertility, mortality, migration - Social disasters o War, famine - Policies o Taxation, zoning, planning ordinances - Historical circumstances - Colonialism in the developing world Population Change - Population change = (birth – dates) + (in migration – out migration) - Natural growth rate (NGR) o NGR = (annual # births) – (annual # deaths) - Net Migration Rate o In migration – out migration - Double time o The number of years it takes for a population to double in size o Rule of 70  Divide 70 by annual rate of growth  At current rate (1.2%), world population will be double in 2068 Malthusian Theory - Pessimistic Prediction o Population growing exponentially o Food production growing arithmetically, disaster looms - Agricultural productivity would see diminishing marginal returns o Positive checks – people could change o Negative checks – nature would bring death, disease, famine, and war - Figure 3.9: Malthus’s predictions of catastrophe were belied by the productivity gains and declining fertility unleashed by the Industrial Revolution o The world’s food supply has increased more quickly than its population, indicating that the causes of hunger are not simply reducible to population growth - Neo-Malthusians (Club of Rome) o Acknowledged errors of Malthus o Argued that Malthus would be right in the long run o “The Limit to Growth”  Exhaustion of non renewable resources and ecological catastrophe  Promoted family planning - Challenge to Neo-Malthusians o When resources become scarce and expensive, more resources are found o Large families are valuable in agricultural-based LDC’s - Figure 3.10: Neo-Malthusians, such as the Club of Rome, revived Malthus’s arguments in the 1960’s by using computer models of the world economy, population growth, and resource usage Demographic Transition Theory - Examines how and why birth, death and growth rates change as society moves from traditional to modern contexts - Four stages o 1) Preindustrial (high birth and death rates, growth rates low or fluctuate around zero) o 2) Early Industrial Society (high birth rate, rapidly declining death rate, and rapidly increasing growth rates) o 3) Late Industrial (declining birth rate, low death rate, and declining growth rates) o 4) Post-industrial (low birth and death rates, growth rates low or fluctuate around zero) - Figure 3.12: Demographic Transition o Stage 1 – Primitive Stability (Low Growth) o Stage 2 & 3 – High Growth o Stage 4 – Modern Stability (Low Growth) - Figure 3.13: Fertility Rates o Highest: Nigeria, Uganda, Mali, Somalia, Burundi o Lowest: Macau, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Japan - Causes of death in economically advanced societies differ from those in LDC’s - Figure 3.22: Deaths in developed countries o Smoking, Poor Diet, Physical Inactivity, Microbial Agents, Toxic Agents, etc.. - There’s a strong correlation between economic development and birth and death rates, life expectancy, and population under the age of 18 - Most of the current growth in world population is occurring in developing world - Figure 3.25 Rates of n
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