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GMS200-18-09-2012.docx

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Department
Global Management Studies
Course
GMS 200
Professor
Shavin Malhotra
Semester
Fall

Description
GMS-200 Intro to Global Management (18/09/2012) Chapter 3 Information and Decision Making  Subscription Ad on Economist.com o 1. Economist.com subscription – US $59 One-year subscription to Economist.com. Includes online access to all articles from the Economist since 1997. o 2. Print Subscription – US $125 o 3.Print and online – US $125  You think you are getting a better deal with option 3. “The Decoy Effect”  Influence people to go for the higher option. o 36-Inch Panasonic $800 o 42-Inch Toshiba $1340 o 50-Inch Philips $1480 Critical Thinking  Observing and recording data is the central aspect of management.  Sometimes, the data at hand is not ideal! Discrimination  UC Berkeley in the fall of 1973  8,442 men and 4,321 women applied  44% of the men and 35% of the women were admitted  The quality of the applicants was the same  Is this discrimination? “The Simpson’s paradox”  When viewing totals of numbers it gives you a different view as if you broke up the numbers. Men Woman Applied Accepted Applied Accepted 1000 60% 100 60% 1000 30% 1000 30% 2000 900 1100 360 45% 33% Stock Predictions  One stock broker provides monthly predictions that correctly predicted 7 of the 9 downturns in the economy over the past 3 years.  Is he and expert? Can Experts Predict Better?  Experts do not predict better.  When listening to Experts be very critically. o Rat was placed in T-shaped maze. o Food was kept randomly on either the right of the left transept of the T. o Over the long run, food was kept 60% of the time on the left and 40% on the right side. o Neither the students nor the rats was told these frequencies. o Students were asked to predict where the food would be. o Rats were right about 60%. o Students were right 52%. (Tried to figure out a pattern, didn’t work out). Classic “Linda” Case  Probability can be smaller on one option but we tend to choice that option
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