MHR 849 Lecture Notes - Delphi Method, Demand Forecasting, Trend Analysis

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emeralddonkey1

18 Sep 2012

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Trend analysis: the historical relationship between an operational index and the number of employees required by the organization (demand for labour) Operational indices include: number of units produced, number of clients serviced, production (eg. direct labour) hours. Steps to conducting effective index/trend analysis: select the appropriate business/operational index. Historical annual level of sale or level of production. Employee requirements ratio: the relationship between the operational index and the demand for labour: calculate the forecasted demand for labour. Average employee requirement ratio for each future year to arrive at forecaster annual demand for labour. Delphi technique: a carefully designed program of sequential, individual interrogations (usually conducted through questionnaires) interspersed with information feedback on the opinions expressed by the other participants in previous rounds. Avoids many problems associated with face to face groups: Time and costs incurred can be higher than those incurred when using alternative forecasting methods due to questionnaire administration.

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MHR 849 Lecture Notes - Delphi Method, Demand Forecasting, Trend Analysis

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