PSY 308 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Horoscope, Longrun, Foregone Conclusion
14 Feb 2018
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Subjective v. objective probability: subjective probability refers to personal estimates of the likelihood of events, objective probability is a mathematically determined statement of likelihood about known frequencies. Rolling a (fair) die: probabilities with a fair die for any particular roll: Probability of any particular number: 1/6 = . 17. Probability of even (odd) number: 3/6 = . 50. Probability of any number 1 through 6: 6/6 = 1. 0. Probability of a number larger than 6: 0/6 = 0. Multiple outcome situations: when we want to determine the probability of one event and another event occurring together, we multiply their separate probabilities. The and rule: a x b = probability of a and b. Probability of two particular numbers in two rolls (e. g. , 5 on roll 1 and a 6 on roll 2): 1/6 x 1/6 = . 03: when we want to determine the probability of one event or another event occurring together, we add their separate probabilities.
