IDST 1001H Lecture Notes - Lecture 9: Hans Rosling, Thomas Robert Malthus, Sub-Saharan Africa
14 Jun 2018
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Lecture Notes: Does the World have too many people?
• 10 years ago more people were living in urban societies than in rural for the first time
• World population began to grow around 1800
• Most of the population live in one area of the world
What Causes Population Growth:
• When birth rates are greater than death rates, population grows
• Birth rates: number of births per 1000 people in a year
• Death rate: number of deaths per 1000 people in a year
• Both birth and death rates have been falling
• In rich countries, birth rates fall faster than death rates
• In developing countries, death rates have fallen faster than birth rates
• Meaning population growth in poor countries is much greater than
population growth in rich countries
• Death rates fall because people live longer, and have better access to
healthcare, and there are large cuts in infant mortality rates
• Infant mortality: number of deaths of children under age of 1 per
1000 births
• Fewer mothers die as well
• Global pandemic could have significant effect on death rates
• Fertility rate: number of live births per 1000 women between ages of 15
and 44
• Fertility rates are falling
• Replacement rate: fertility rate which holds population stead
• 2.1 children per woman would keep populations constant
• On global scale, population growth is slowing down
• Hans Rosling said population division of UN in 1958 estimated very closely to
what population would be in future
• Surprises:
• Speed at which population growth is slowing down
• Large percent of population will be over 60 by 2050
• Who will support these people?
• We are at peak number of children
Distribution of population:
• Sub-Saharan Africa will hold larger share of world population
• Much of change in global population rate is due to China and the one-child policy
Is the World Overpopulated?
• Population density of Bangladesh is more than 1000 people/square km, there are areas
in California or Toronto where these numbers are equal or higher
• High fertility rates are the exception, rather than the rule
• Decline in fertility is driven by wider application of family planning technologies
• Idea that world could have too many people originated in late 18th century, by Thomas
Malthus
• He argued population would outgrow the resources of the Earth
• FAD: Food, Availability, Decline (Food Availability with Decline as Populations
Grow)
• Neo-Malthusians argue fertility reductions were required and excessive
population degrades the environment
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