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Sept 27.pdf

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HTST 489
John Ferris

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HTST489 Sept 27 th Examples of intelligence working at the ones we tend to draw from WWII – ULTRA, for example. Intelligence effects competition all the time, works dramatically different in one competition than another. Often with intelligence, you know something is going to happen and you can't do anything about it. Informed but can't use it to do anything. Or, ultimately, you try to do something and fail in the execution even though the intelligence was good enough to try to do something.Any kind of human compeition is one where good intentions don't necessarily deliver victory. Two cases of intelligence enabling: a counter ambush against one navy attempting their own ambush. British andAmericans at different points plan counterambushes against Germans. Tactical British defeat, though strategically not a failure. Midway is a victory. Role of intelligence in these competitions is identical, but so many other factors affect an encounter than you're not guaranteed to succeed.Agood army with bad intel is more likely to win than the other way around. Systemic distinctions between competitions. Games as examples. In chess, you start out with two teams, even numbers, see every deployment, nothing is hidden in location.Assessing the intentions of the other side is difficult. Poker: you know you're own hand, everyone else has a hand roughly as large as yours and a large number of cards are unknown and not deployed. If we treat every card as a capability, you know 8 cards out of 52, as does everyone else. Under those circumstances, it's much harder to guess intentions, easy to be outmanuevered. Always room for a competent player to bluff you. Intelligence in the second case is much less thorough. The way intel affects you does so by different means. Distinction between sovereign and nonsovereign competition. Nonsovereign competitors can choose to do what they wish and are not controlled by rules from above – business, politics. Non-sovereign competition: Theorists of economics use logic to explain how information affects business in a different way than theorists of strategy would in describing war – because they're describing different types of competition. Uncertainty promotes reckless behaviour says Smith, whereas Klausewitz said it leads to caution.Adam Smith emphasizes that people tend to underrate risk and overrate their ability to manage risk. Economists are aware of issues like ignorance and uncertainty but point to different conclusions. Say there's so many things to know it's difficult to impossible to know everything – all decisions are made with limited information. If you mind your own business, you're learning what issues affect your economic behaviour and that gives you an advantage over people you deal with. In theory, economists still emphasize problems of ignorance and uncertainty. Economists, in their hubris, think you can manage uncertainty. Delude themselves into thinking mathematics slays uncertainty, imagining they're a science when they're not. TransactionAnalysis – says if you look at how businessmen interact, they're so aware of the limits of their abilities to gather precise info, their behaviour changes. They become bureaucracies to control uncertainties. Interesting thing is to see how strategy-like transaction analysts are. Provide effective descriptions of how individual actors will behave. Information economics looks at how information is collected and used by economic actors. One may pay to acquire information, but once you've got it others can be a parasite and get it from you. Want to arrange good, honest, profitable arrangements. The point of accurate info is to find people you want to trade with. “A Market for Lemons” - how do one, wanting to sell a good used car, find a good customer and convince them you're honest? How do you find the honest salesman, as a customer? How to find the truth from other people who aren't trying to hide the truth. How do you make a market function effectively? Competitive Intelligence – school of management. David Porter, important figure. Porter says if you're in business relations, how do you maximize your information so you do well on an exchange? Competitive int
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