Sept 27 th
Examples of intelligence working at the ones we tend to draw from WWII – ULTRA, for example.
Intelligence effects competition all the time, works dramatically different in one competition than
another. Often with intelligence, you know something is going to happen and you can't do anything
about it. Informed but can't use it to do anything. Or, ultimately, you try to do something and fail in the
execution even though the intelligence was good enough to try to do something.Any kind of human
compeition is one where good intentions don't necessarily deliver victory. Two cases of intelligence
enabling: a counter ambush against one navy attempting their own ambush. British andAmericans at
different points plan counterambushes against Germans. Tactical British defeat, though strategically not
a failure. Midway is a victory. Role of intelligence in these competitions is identical, but so many other
factors affect an encounter than you're not guaranteed to succeed.Agood army with bad intel is more
likely to win than the other way around.
Systemic distinctions between competitions. Games as examples. In chess, you start out with two
teams, even numbers, see every deployment, nothing is hidden in location.Assessing the intentions of
the other side is difficult. Poker: you know you're own hand, everyone else has a hand roughly as large
as yours and a large number of cards are unknown and not deployed. If we treat every card as a
capability, you know 8 cards out of 52, as does everyone else. Under those circumstances, it's much
harder to guess intentions, easy to be outmanuevered. Always room for a competent player to bluff
you. Intelligence in the second case is much less thorough. The way intel affects you does so by
Distinction between sovereign and nonsovereign competition. Nonsovereign competitors can choose to
do what they wish and are not controlled by rules from above – business, politics.
Theorists of economics use logic to explain how information affects business in a different way than
theorists of strategy would in describing war – because they're describing different types of
competition. Uncertainty promotes reckless behaviour says Smith, whereas Klausewitz said it leads to
caution.Adam Smith emphasizes that people tend to underrate risk and overrate their ability to manage
risk. Economists are aware of issues like ignorance and uncertainty but point to different conclusions.
Say there's so many things to know it's difficult to impossible to know everything – all decisions are
made with limited information. If you mind your own business, you're learning what issues affect your
economic behaviour and that gives you an advantage over people you deal with. In theory, economists
still emphasize problems of ignorance and uncertainty. Economists, in their hubris, think you can
manage uncertainty. Delude themselves into thinking mathematics slays uncertainty, imagining they're
a science when they're not. TransactionAnalysis – says if you look at how businessmen interact,
they're so aware of the limits of their abilities to gather precise info, their behaviour changes. They
become bureaucracies to control uncertainties. Interesting thing is to see how strategy-like transaction
analysts are. Provide effective descriptions of how individual actors will behave. Information
economics looks at how information is collected and used by economic actors. One may pay to acquire
information, but once you've got it others can be a parasite and get it from you. Want to arrange good,
honest, profitable arrangements. The point of accurate info is to find people you want to trade with. “A
Market for Lemons” - how do one, wanting to sell a good used car, find a good customer and convince
them you're honest? How do you find the honest salesman, as a customer? How to find the truth from other people who aren't trying to hide the truth. How do you make a market function effectively?
Competitive Intelligence – school of management. David Porter, important figure. Porter says if
you're in business relations, how do you maximize your information so you do well on an exchange?