Multilateral system leads to looking for comparative advantages. Leads in turn to use of intelligence.
In economic, social, technological terms, China and Islamic nations were leading. European states
driven to competition in very different ways.
Rise of diplomacy.
Specifically, of permanent placement of ambassadors abroad. By 1400s, first in Italy and then gradually
across all of Western Europe, begins use of resident ambassador. Envoys were much more sporadic.
Envoys provided reportage, tried to influence things while in the state. But only temporary. Byzantines
would send envoys to live for 4 or 5 months amongst “barbarian” tribes – but eventually going home.
Ambassadors are trying to finesse local populations. Multiplying material gathered, communications as
well, leading to housing countries to look for gathering intel on these ambassadors through
communiques. Larger volume of material open to attack. Some communiques simply sent through the
mail, some through messengers – messengers may have questionable loyalty, however.
If you manage the information from ambassadors properly, you can have a wealth of useful
information. Can form an accurate picture of what's happening across Europe. Venetian archives, for
example. Venetians are the early modern state which has the longest run of ambassadors in foreign
counrties and systematically collects and analyzes information.
Suddenly another target for intel emerges – archives. Byzantines had archives, Chinese governments
did too – but ability of foreign states to penetrate these archives is slim. Though if you're say, Italian
city-states side by side, it's easier.Another source of intel gathering opens and that's getting access to
people's documents. Get access to drafts of correspondents from servants or secretary – may even help
you get access to a cipher. If you can break into the archives of any country, can get access to anything
they can. i.e.in 1580s, English, worried about possibility of SpanishArmada. Francis Walzingham (SP)
can't penetrate the archives of Spain, but can access the Italian archives. Can pick up copies of Spanish
documents the Italians have access to.
Diplomatic correspondence and open sources – allowing two intel sources to emerge. Interception of
diplomatic correspondence with codebreaking, and attacking archives. Now systemically much more
powerful than ever before. Amount of intel available explodes. If there's a single immediate change in
the way intel works in this period compared to previous times, that's it.
Cryptography and Cryptoanalysis
Communications intelligence, codebreaking. Emerges in this period but doesn't become significant
source of intel til middle 1600s. Idea that you can turn any language into any other by changing words
or letters is ancient. Primitive cryptography had been practiced for well over 1000 years. By the 900s
AD, clear in theArab world that they're some writers taking cryptography into levels of sophistcation
never before reached – seems to have origins inArab world. Solving ciphered messages doesn't start til
1400s, Italian renaissance diplomatic system. Codebreaking become independent sour