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History 490 - Notes up until Feb 26th, 2014.

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University of Calgary
HTST 490
John Ferris

HIST 490 – Lecture 3, Jan 13 2014. World War one cont’d - Western front and signals intelligence. At a rate that wasn’t seen before. Radio and communications interception. The role begins to mutate with landlines etc. - Armies become reliant on telegraph and field telephones. What becomes clear is there is leakage on the front lines when using telegraph lines/field telephones. You can intercept messages through the ground. The Germans and French stumble onto this knowledge quickly, becomes offensive and defensive issue. The English are slower at this. The Germans easily pick up English plans using this discovery. Near the end of the war, more effective defense is implemented to stop this activity. - Once people begin using radio in 1916/17 to direct artillery fire and communicate with gun-spotters in order to figure out what is happening, and then deliver warnings to your own troops. Popularity grows with use of radio, and everyone can know the location of everyone. On intelligence alone, one could know the entire plan of the enemy combatants. But this doesn’t mean that much actually, because it can’t actually help you fight the physical battle. This was 1917. In 1918, things began to change. Traffic analysis played a role as well – looking at the outside of the traffic data without intercepting the actual conversation. Identifying key signatures etc. Metadata – telephone traffic which shows associations with telephone numbers. An association with traffic analysis. The British try to spoof this. Simulated radio stations, go black, etc. Wireless deception starts to enter the equation and becomes important in 1918. - Assume rationalisation in this time period, fighting attrition. The Western front case also adheres to the fact that the defensive has the advantage. - By late 1917, French and Germans have high damage (French with high morale, but with limited manpower). Germans in a similar situation. The Commonwealth armies are battered, but in better condition. Change begins to happen with assault divisions and trench divisions. Americans rising in power quickly. Germans choose to go for an all-out offensive. But did not drive out the Americans. Techniques exist in 1918 which allow more effective attacks to be launched. The development of predictive fire (bringing surprise back into the mix with artillery issues. Pre-send a frontline with a menu without firing until your men actually go forward. Figuring out where targets are). Tanks become an effective tool for the allies to pass through the defensive trench zone. Tanks minimized casualties and break barriers, but not much besides that at this point. - By the beginning of 1918, the Germans have a temporary advantage in manpower. Partially because the British hold back their forces. The Germans pursue a surprise attack plan, but are criticized for not strategizing. Germans use radio deception to create a fake army at the front, and begin to implement their surprise attacks with radio interceptions and planning. Identified soft spots. Use systematic efforts to trick the enemy, and use the bulge to threaten the French and British armies. They move forward and use artillery to neutralize the enemy defenses with significant manpower as well. The Michael battles. Germans prevent the enemy from concentrating its defenses. However, German losses are higher than allies loses in these defeats. - Germans try to exploit by moving infantry through to the front lines. However, you cannot transfer heavy weaponry at the advance. So what happens as men leave is they send infantry forward without weapons. Their best soldiers get thrown away in this flawed strategy. They aren’t only losing men 3 to 2, but their best men. They are quickly running low. Also, enemies (British and French) begin to recognize the signs of a German attack. They were very stereotypical. French set up a great ambush. They can see where they will attack. So they put small amounts of men on the front line to deceive the Germans. They build up their defensive about 10 miles back, and when the German’s advance, the French smash into them well-prepared, with the German’s being poorly prepared with all their heavy artillery behind them. The French stalling the Germans is when the Germans realize they cannot do it anymore. The Commonwealth are also significant in discouraging German efforts. They had built up effective strategies, and the British become as good as interception as the German’s were over time. The British pull off a deception with the Canadian and Australian armies. The Canadian army has the best doctrine of intelligence, which is picked up by Britain and later, America. Their strategy is collecting as much intelligence as they can, store it in the intelligence agency and in real- time processes information immediately available to the people who are controlling the guns. The Canadians also train crews to use German guns, so the Germans are overwhelmed, also by the mechanized brigade around back, and they dig in. After a month of these blows, the German armies in effect give up. - In 1918, the campaigns in the western front are basically equal with the Second World War; with the exceptions of tanks and aircraft capabilities. Intelligence, deception, and surprise are fundamental with how these strategies work. - Target acquisition and strike warfare began to develop in the twentieth century, which very much matters in the long run. - The Eastern Front: secondary only to the western front in terms of output (wastage). This area is also significant because it is where the Germans came closest to winning the war. A much thinner force-to-space ratio. Maneuver and exploitation is possible, you can break through a front and use cavalry. In this front as well, the German army is much stronger than the Russian, which is equal to Austria-Hungary, even though it’s much smaller. The German army is also better led than the Russian. The final difference is intelligence. A crystal clear superiority with the Austria-Hungary. Germans do not have a sufficiently developed landline system, and are helped by Austria-Hungary. Jan 15 , 2014 (Morgan) • German army is better than the Russian army • Russians relied heavily on radio • Aus-Hun & Germans sources say they got a great deal of intelligence about the Russians, reinforces them more consistently than anyone else involved in the war • 1915-1916 german and aus-hun attacks against the czar • Inflict much heavier casualties against the Russians than you suffer • Russians had a huge artillery, employ guns in fortified permanent zones- unadaptable • german military- generals don’t care much about intelligence but if it is there they will take advantage of it and use it effectively • Russians were slow on the curb of using how to use predictive fire, easy to anticipate what they will do • Pile more artillery in an area= more chance of winning but easy for the other to predict that they will be attacked there • June-july 1916 Bruselaw? Defensive- series of attacks the Russians have thrown on their front- one major success of Russian army • Aus-hun intelligence provides extremely accurate prediction of when they Russian army will attack • Russians in this Bruselaw defensive are behaving differently than any other army in the war at this time • Small artillery, large cavalry • Bruselaw uses forces differently- don’t have enough guns to blast the enemy away, uses guns and ammo in first hour of battle, try to neutralize enemies fire defenses long enough to bring our men on top of the enemy and they will be ordered to keep moving forward • aus-hun know # of forces and hour of attack, but they don’t know what they will do- au shun army is ripped apart • cavalry has a strategically significant role* • aus-hun military and intelligence is an example of an extremely good intelligence system which cannot save its military from disaster • germans inflict huge losses on Russians • early 1917 german army brigns Russia to a point where the army starts to collapse • if Germany didn’t drive America to get involved they may have won the war • german army at all levels is better than the Russian army* Intelligence in the Middle East • plays a more dynamic and complicated role • when turkey enters the war, one of the consequences is a blockade of Russia • 1914-1916 real war that turkey fights is against Russia • Most of the tools used by the turks and the germans are not military tools- bribery • British have a limited intelligence capability against Russia • Dardnels campaign is very important strategically • Germans late 1914 option to move forces from the east to the west • British unsure where to send forces, if you pile them in france they will suffer losses • Istanbul –sea port city- if you had a battleship in the port, you could blow the city away- had the British been able to get a ship into the sea of____ they could have forced the turks out of the war • Initial british effort is to send small ships into the dardnels- into minefield- bad luck, losses • Invasion of galipoly is launched- failed? • British assumed that the Turkish forces weren’t very good- stemmed from race and national characteristics-assume that if youre not white youre not likely to be very good • Balkan wars 1912-1913 turkish army is trampled by others, 1914 ripped apart by Russia • English launched attack in Iraq and the Turks perform poorly- think they can get away with a small scale simple attack • Galipoly is an area the turks regard as being important to defend • Their personal were better than the English and Australian soldiers a shore • Gustav Kamil? • British are willing to believe they can take a position that is difficult to take and don’t think the enemy matters • = defeat where the turks inflict heavy losses and do fairly well • British didn’t take intelligence seriously, because at that point they didn’t take the turks seriously • British discovery that if you advance into enemy territory, their ability to defend/send reinforces is quite good, and you can’t predict their intelligence? • Turks march everyone 100 miles away • Armenian Genocide- Turks march Armenians off • Galipoly= disasterous, Koot= embarrassing defeat • British, indian and Australian armies build up forces in middle east • Turks also treat the war against the English as a side show • From turks point of view they are defending islam against infultrators • War against Russia is what most interests them • Turks send their forces into the caucuses • War of sideshows between the English and turks where intelligence mattered significantly • Early part of the war British intelligence sucked • Gets better 1916 because of more/different sources • British 1916 air reconnaissance abilities that the turks don’t have • CUP members always communicating, if you are significant CUP leader, only form of communication is radio o British early 1916 onward are increasingly able to read all Turkish communication, have a clear idea what the turks are doing on a strategic level o Turks at any point are able to send an army of 50/60,000 soldiers, but the English are able to monitor the movement of these forces • Germans and turks are employing most of their forces against eachother* rather than the British Jan 17th, 2014 - British have knowledge of Turkish location and strength, with the Turks in control of Mecca during the War. The British exploit intelligence from this area working reconnaissance and other strategies together. The Turks are taken down. Another battle happens in modern-day Israel. Attempted launch of cavalry in the Sinai Desert. The Turks need to defend Beersheba and Gaza, and the British launch three attacks to break through this line. Intelligence plays a large role in how British intercept the Turkish control. Cairo is where the messages are intercepted. The inability to get live intelligence does have a toll on tactical strategies. - Small numbers of soldiers in these combats. They are aiming to get past these Gaza front, as it would be easier to base your efforts in terms of food and supplies. The third time, it looks as though the British will attack Gaza, however, they would attack Beersheba from the inside to drive into Palestine – using deception as a large factor of this tactic. Associated with the haversack ruse – fake papers within a suitcase of a divergent. False plans found, reshape the enemy’s assessment. - They fake military concentrations along the coast, and don’t move military forces along the frontline in the interior until the last hour in Beersheba. Germans and Turks expect Gaza attack, and Beersheba, but not a large one. Cavalry is being used like armor was in Blitzerg. End result is that the Germans and Turks can see that the British will attack from many places. You cannot hide the possibility of an attack of some kind against your target, but you can hide the volume of that attack. In certain chokepoints, you have major attacks of air raids… sounds like a modern battle: mobile forces, air attacks, deception, and annihilation. - The exception to the rule of defensive with the strategic upper hand is the Germans in the Eastern front with a superior army. Intelligence does get extremely good by 1917, almost as good as armies in 1941. Land intelligence – issue of actually having armies that can effectively exploit it. - The North Sea arena. Naval criteria. The British and German balance of power is highly in favor of the British. The British building more warships than the Germans, and throughout the war continue to hold dominance. Brits are set up well strategically across from the North Sea, and can use the Norwegian Sea to get into the Atlantic. But unless you can win, you will lose. Germans have erratic and irrational naval set ups. They had to prevent the Brits from gaining control of the Baltic, which the Germans currently had. British had a good strategy to slowly influence the German economy and collapse it as they move in on the North Sea. The Brits have a good position in their strategy. But the Germans come up with their own. They want to ambush the British naval fleet. Here is where intelligence comes into play, in order for a war of ambush to work. By fluke, the British get an opportunity to stop it. In the Pacific, a code book is retrieved, and well as a second one in the North. They unexpectedly get the best circumstance possible… the Germans don’t even change their code book regularly, so the Brits can interpret very easily. They did change the super-incypherment however. In British code-breaking during the World War, there was a large number of women within the system. Reconstructing of communications is built, and the organization “room 40” is formed, and eventually merged with the naval intelligence system. The consequences allow you to reconstruct what the Germans are communicating. Key signatures become recognized. There is many transmissions by the Germans, who constantly use radio. Thus the British can quickly see their adaptations. They also start to observe that the Germans are acting off of information from the British, suggesting they are interpreting their codes as well, based on how they discovered the Germans got information. They tighten up their traffic, and they pick up a lot of information from the Germans. Strategic consequences is that when information is discovered, it makes ambush extremely difficult. You can pick out on patterns to determine if it looks like an attack will be launched or not. The problem is, the Germans don’t come out very often. There is attempts to ambush and counter-ambush but they cannot find each other. Fluke often enters the equation – intelligence offers counter-ambush chances, which is very difficult, but the chance stems from how both armies find it very hard to command their armies. Also the nature of the British naval command, which is hierarchical, makes it hard to operate effectively. There is a decision making system that doesn’t know how to make use of the intelligence available. The radio sets used are also a problem, and very hard to truly communicate. Jan 20 , 2014 - Room 40, proves very hard for an institution to effectively use intelligence within World War I. The British didn’t have a mode of tactical intelligence through air reconnaissance until the Battle of Jutland. - Battle of Jutland can be compared to the Battle of Midway in the Second WW. It is a counter-ambush and involved deception. Naval battle with a fluke. One fluke hit on a large unit can blow it up. In terms of number of ships sunk, it is a minor German victory, yet they decide they cannot fight any more land battles. The blockade, however, is really what you are fighting over, so it was technically a British victory. - The last three weeks of the war, when the Germans are losing on the ground, the German navy comes up with a plan that the naval takes a route to blow up London and run. A suicide mission, and the British have set up a plan to ambush the Germans if they came out. When the German crews are told to sacrifice, instead it starts the flame of the German revolution. - The Submarine Campaign – not like the Second World War. These submarines are surface ships designed for underwater, but one knot an hour, and can only do so for 24 hrs. Not a real submarine. British knows this is illegal, and Germans know if they continue America will get involved. Unrestricted submarine campaign – Germans can sink ships in a certain area. Easy to fool: convoy ships make submarines useless. Intelligence is a factor: every German submarine surfaces at a specific time and broadcasted a radio message back home to find out where they were. The British can use this to triangulate the German subs as well. Subs have no armor, and a hit by a round can penetrate your hull and prevent you from sinking. Also moves very slowly. The British make hundreds of aggressive efforts to destroy German subs in 1917-18. Similar to 1943, but it’s actually very hard to damage submarines. You can also find out where Germany set its minefields, and set counter minefields. - The Royal Navy and the Germans both have good intelligence during the War at Sea. However, it was difficult to locate one another so it was hard for either actor to have effective counter-ambushes. Intelligence is very powerful at this point, but the military cannot use it that well. Strategically this works in British power. The consequences of British military and intelligence makes it easy for the British to take WWI in lieu of Germany’s subs. - British decide to put economic war on Germany. The blockade. They attempt to stop any trade across the Atlantic. By trying to impose a blockade, you block the enemy’s imports and exports but also affect the neutral state’s goods. A willingness from the entente powers from buying a huge amount of goods from the neutral – since they want to make the most money from selling goods to both sides simultaneously. British and French control all communications across the Atlantic. They state it would be not neutral to allow transmissions across the Atlantic, so the Americans do is that everyone has to use the same code book. So the British and French can get every message sent across the Atlantic, as well as the Germans. Creates a data overload that no intelligence agency has ever dealt with previous to that. The British start to organize the material and index it. They hire Encyclopedia Britannica staff to organize and index all the data –largely female. You can have a largely indexed system that provides intensive information on any subject or information. Extremely good data-retrieval system. The British know they have to make blockade work. They develop a firm grip on all the information that comes in, and they hold onto it until the end of the war. Blockade intelligence is very useful in this situation. Up until the Battle of Jutland, the British are trying to manage the blockade without trying to alienate anyone dramatically. But they become tougher and tougher. By allowing you to see who is important or not with intelligence, you can avoid large scale killings of innocent people. Can also operate intelligence out of neutral countries. You can also give these communications to local governments and trade industries to justify your actions. Jan 22 , 2014 (Morgan) • Information processing becomes highly advanced • Intelligence allows blockade to allow hitting innocent people • Makes it almost impossible for Germans to export/import across the Atlantic • Makes it difficult for neutrals who are tied with the Germans • But you are able to negotiate with the neutrals- able to go to pre-war level but if they go above that they will nuke them! • Swedes have a lot of raw materials they can sell to the Germans • Swedes vs. Russians • Country most affected by blockade during WWI= Russia • Intelligence and Blockade- related to the war • Late spring 1915 when blockade is first utilized o Manage damage to innocent people o Affect the access to necessities of Germans- hard to import goods from abroad o Are leaks in the blockade o Damaging German industry and therefore GDP- Germany has shrinking- British and French is expanding • Contain ability to produce weapons- Germans are able to survive on this respect- resourceful • Starvation/malnutrition- older people and babies die • Winter 1916/1917 • Armistice signed, blockade continues until Germany signs treaty of Versailles- civilians still dying • Germans say that blockade won’t make them surrender- British say it will never cause them to surrender- but it will be the last thing that will cause them to surrender when they are being defeated • Germany- people are running out of clothes, food rations • Impact of Blockade is not straightforward- weakens their nerve, doesn’t make them surrender- unintended consequence: Germans declare unrestricted submarine warfare late 1914 because they realize they can’t affect the British any other way- to sink merchants on site- make decision fall 1916- know that this will bring Americans into the war • Germans can start to see German civilians dying- see the British preventing food from reaching the masses • Blockade intelligence with naval intelligence= allies stronger than the Germans • Hard to translate intelligence into immediate operational victories • Russians, Blockade and Americans- huge impact on Germans • Internal Intelligence- WWI internal security services start to take off in power. Significant both in terms of developments organizationally and the mentality that develops in security services • Czarist Russia has internal security service that is quite constrained • Mi5 military intelligence agency and special Branch (branch of police originally 1880’s to monitory Irish rebellions)- Britain- Liberal- Mi6= SIS • France, Germany and Austria-Hungary- democratized- nothing like a police state- don’t exist WWI • Having a kind of political police is unavoidable • Boost in number of people monitoring those involved in organizations- maintain more information that you would before • Security services are looking internally for external enemies • Active efforts to work with internal dissidence to destabilize external enemies • Russian Revolution – state of Russia is state of Russia is taken over by political party which believes in revolution everywhere and builds ties of dissidence • Internal Security has impact on every country in great war but great war has bigger impact on internal security* • CSIS- Canada- law-abiding intelligence agency • When Austria-Hungary arrests the students who killed Franz Ferdinand they give them a fair trial because they don’t have evidence to tie them to terrorist movements- most go free and are seen as national heroes of Serbia • Czarist system sounds worse than it actually was • Governments are confronting mass amounts of information coming in from various new/different sources • Almost everywhere except Britain- new bodies of information are processed the way they have always been, by governments, small systems unable to manage/make use of the information coming in- often only look for military intelligence • Leader of France Georges Clemenceau • Woodrow Wilson not one of the greatest leaders of states^ gets most of his info from the Brits- Chief intelligence advisor= head of British Intelligence- William Wiseman, presents what the Brits want Wilson to believe- does not assess information with others- no strong sources of his own, heavily influenced by the British • Last 2 years of the war the British create an effective bureaucracy to manage total war- committees and panels to oversee and process actions of the war- coordinate and report information up- every expert and body has the ability to bring their information forward= discuss/argue information brought forward- tolerably affective means of information gather/process/test/discuss/application extremely good decisions • German: Bernstein* significant person, Socialists meet in Stockholm- the army runs the country and no one is going to be able to overthrow the country until the army is beaten in the field- if you are going to win the war you have to defeat us absolutely- ensure that we go home with our tail between our legs- message sent to London- director of military intelligence reads it- sends it to the capital= extremely accurate o Reinforce Lloyd George’s decision (PM of Britain at the time) to keep soldiers out of France? Consequences of a rational intelligence system are not easy to play out • Assessing intelligence across the board strategically- econ, social, diplomatic intelligence: THE BRITISH- much better than anyone else • Diplomatic intelligence: longstanding, the norm. had been a relative highpoint of intelligence services before WWI. Linked with subversion. Every country in the war wanted more information- Germany and Austria= vulnerable position- cant communicate outside Europe • German communications= extremely vulnerable to any allied power capable of intercepting • German- based on subversion/diplomacy • German diplomatic communication Jan 24 , 2014 - Political warfare – coercion, diplomacy, etc. Starting with North America. - All the major powers when the war breaks out use subversion, white propaganda and strategies like this. - When the war breaks out, US is largest nuclear power. French are imposing blockade on the United States. Many people develop an Anti-Entente mindset, due to anti-colonial attitudes and the US blockade. Germans are pursuing bacteriological warfare as soon as the war breaks out. Tries to sell herbs with anthrax to Entente. Germans cannot get diplomats back and forth between North America and Europe. Final mistake is they start taking on substantial campaigns of sabotage against American parties. The Germans run into a dilemma that they cannot buy or sell from the US, but the entente can. So they decide that since the British can buy weaponry, but they can’t, they will blow up those storehouses so they do not have the technology anymore. All sides pursue propaganda etc. But the Germans uniquely start to implement sabotage against America. They establish espionage networks as well. This becomes known to two sources. The British and the American authorities. The American authorities recognize that the Germans are doing something, and they turn to the then small unit of the FBI to keep an eye on German diplomats in America. Phones bugged, but cannot understand German at first. The British tend to work through people in the United States who know which Americans to talk to. Wilson’s chief diplomatic advisor gets into a good friendship with the British. They are able to develop good working relations with the British and can put information in the right ear. Between the FBI and the British forces, every German effort at sabotage is quickly rounded up. They publish as much material as they can. So the Germans end up making themselves look like a problem for the Americans. No positive outcome from their efforts at sabotage whatsoever. - This all culminates with the example of the Zimmerman telegram. The Germans understand that unrestricted submarine warfare will call the US into war. They decide that they can ploy the US into a war with Mexico. However, they were again foolish. They have Count Zimmerman send a telegram to the Mexican government offering an offensive and defensive alliance with them and a return of all they have lost if they declare war on the United States. This is strange given that the US was neutral and theoretically had friendly relations with Germany. But Germany had to send this telegraph through the US in order for it to reach Mexico. British forces were already intercepting the message. The code the message was sent to across the Atlantic was not the same code used on the way from Washington to Mexico. So it could appear that the message was messed with on the way. The US becomes more peeved especially since they were aiming for a means of peace during the war, and they were partially optimistic due to their relations with Germany. So this message from Germany does irritate them. Can’t be published this time, because it most likely won’t be believed. The Germans could also deny the authenticity. The British decide to let Admiral Hall to play it how he wants to, so he shows the telegram to the American embassy, and sends the telegram to Wilson who becomes enraged. He sees not only the Germans doing something against the Americans, but also that the Germans tricked him and lied to him all the way through. It is confirmed authentic, and in late March 1917, it is published officially and all gets enraged. Americans would’ve entered the war eventually, but the Zimmerman telegram on top of all the things the Americans know the Germans have done inside the US etc., makes this process happen much faster and more enthusiastically. It convinces the Americans that the Germans are a real threat. This is a case study in which incompetent diplomacy and strategy combined with extremely good intelligence by the enemy, Germans fail miserably. They would’ve been far better off keeping the US neutral and leaving them alone. - In East Asia (primarily China) when the war breaks out, major Western powers are dragged out to be involved in Europe. Japan rises, technically a member of the entente, coercive diplomacy comes into play and they wear down the Chinese central government, so they are bribed to work in favor of Japan. Bringing China under Japanese control fails, but China is greatly weakened at the end of things through coercive diplomacy and subversion. What emerges across South Asia and the Middle East is that political warfare and subversion become a part of political policy during this time. In India, there is a movement among certain groups and political parties that are attempted to rise up against the British by the Germans. In the end, no massive Indian group that wants to throw the British out, except for the Sikhs. The CID, although small, was effective security. So India can go through the war without blowing up in Britain’s face. And by the end of the war, the British start the long process of giving India full independence. In the Muslim countries in the East, Turkey declares jihad, and the Germans support this in an attempt to tie down the Brits. They try to convince Afghanistan, but knowing they will lose, they refuse to get involved. He is assassinated, and his son does declare jihad. The Eastern front does then blow up in front of Britain’s face and they do find it difficult to deal with it. They try to deal with it through intelligence and security – and this does prevent a lot of opposition. The centre of the issue is on the periphery of the Ottoman EmpirethThis type of political warfare really changes the nature of what will happen in the 20 Century. They realize jihad is a big problem and can cause a large uprising against them. So to stop this uprising, the British support Arab nationalism, so they can rally Arab nations towards them and away from the Ottoman’s jihad pull. It will both weaken jihad, and the Turks. It’s hard to tell what the Arabs want in this situation, but a lot of Arab leaders do want to rally with Britain since most of them are anti-Turkish advancement. TE Lawrence’s function is to bring gold to the Hashemite’s and not to rally them for forces. In the Middle East, what happens is that campaigns rely very heavily on subversion. Small, hard, force and lots of soft influence conducted by political warfare. The Persian state, on the other hand, is declining dramatically and in Iran there is strong Russian and British positions in Iran. When the war breaks out, Iran is neutral, but there is lots of Russian, British, and Turkish presence within Iran. British: spend whatever you need to keep Iran quiet. They bribe frontier officials to do so, and they spent the equivalent of billions in order to remain friendly with the British. The Turks and Germans try to compete, but don’t have enough money. When the war ends, the British try to turn this into making Persia a protector, but it is refused. They lose most of their influence, but during the war, the British run Persia. Centered as much on political warfare, subversion, and propaganda than it is on military forces. - Where the Germans are successful is in Russia. The Germans enter into as many relations with as many anti-Tsarist groups as they can when the war breaks out. They also maintain distant relationships with left-wing Tsarist groups. The military authorities then have a means to know who matters on the left-wing on the Russian revolutionary movement. Until the end of 1916, there is no sign the subversion is paying off in any way. But when the revolution breaks out the Germans see an opportunity to play their hand. They know that one of the men who can powerfully continue this involvement, they send Vladimir Lenin to Russia to get involved from Switzerland. The Germans bankroll Lenin so he can matter when he gets to Russia. He is one of many who believe they should bring about a revolution to force the Bolsheviks back to a revolutionary mindset. So everyone who wants a revolution now joins Lenin. This includes many significant people including Trotsky. Exploiting his ability to dominate the Bolsheviks and the German’s finances, he defeats the Russian army and signs an agreement with Germany so they are out of the war. th - What happens in this era with political warfare echoes significantly in the 20 century – a lot of the world’s political structure is based off of this political warfare. Jan 27 , 2014 - More things change concerning intelligence during WWI than any other event in history. New sources emerge that dominate the next century. The intelligence system that was the best systematically during the war was that of Austria-Hungary. - On the Eastern front, the combination of a good German army, Austria-Hungary intelligence and sub-par Russian army would probably give us the results we would expect to happen. - From 1942 onward, allies get better and stronger and intelligence begins to work in their favor; which doesn’t occur in the First World War. Intelligence affects the First World War more than it has in all history. The volume of usage of intelligence within the First World War is greater than previous combined history. - Many of the things we associate with the Second World War first occur in the First World War. - Germans and Austrians share intelligence quite a bit, since it’s the only barter value Austria has to offer. - Diplomatic intelligence is gathered by all states, but not all of them use code-breaking. A lot of the actions taken by states is on the assumption that intelligence does work. Through history, mythology and stories of the war. Becomes extremely notable in the 1950s. - After the First World War, certain sources are noted as not developed and remain undeveloped. Ex. Imagery with air force, radio intelligence (traffic analysis). - Other sources become very significant, including code-breaking. Sweden and Poland develop some of the best code-breaking systems in the world. Every major power except the US maintains a specialized human intelligence network. These systems bring more good information than had been normal for 1914. German, Soviet, British, French, Italian, and Japanese have wide ranges of material on a vast expanse of issues. This information is processed the same way as it was before 1914. You formulate narrow military policy from this information – what they do is distinct. Cannot address political issues, but can talk about economic issues. By the late 30s, the British start to use intelligence as a strategic tool, treating it as a general staff would with operational intelligence. It has no impact whatsoever on strategic decisions in the 20s and 30s, but when the war breaks out it forms the foundation to use intelligence in this way. Intelligence before this was processed how it always was before this. - In the inter-war years, intelligence is processed normally in a decision-making way. By the 30s, decision-making in the USSR, Italy, etc. is much bureaucratized. The strategic decisions are made by the top dog. Every state has a different mode of decision-making, and the more liberal states have a more bureaucratized system of decision-making and stays in use. - Governments become extremely good at collecting intelligence than they ever had been before. Notable states were Britain, Russia, and Italy. In the 1930s, the ideologies that drive governments are so different that they can no longer see what their opposition sees. - Types of organizations: the conventional method is the normal of the pre-1914 era. Governments go on collecting intelligence from military forces. In these situations, there is a monopoly in charge – so information is skewed to fit their own analysis. Or there forms a competition between two-three different consumers one of which is always stronger. Jan 29 , 2014 - Abwehr, Deuxieme Bureau, Servizio Informazione Militare – German, French, Italian schools of intelligence. - German Abwehr is a hybrid. Collects intelligence, and in the 1930s has more significant role in organization. Doesn’t control signals intelligence. In the 1930s, more organizations join the Abwehr. They have to decide which factors of security the Abwehr will handle in conjunction with the RHSA. The Abwehr becomes a centre for anti-Hitler conspiracies. In the German case is a very confusing plethora of agencies that are all responsible to different masters, using the information for its own purposes. Inability of coordinating efforts, and more competition than cooperation among German intelligence. Focused on central and Western Europe. - French has one major agency in this time period: deuxieme bureau. Focus on Europe and the Middle East. Reasonably good sources in the French intelligence. The characteristic for French military intelligence is a tendency to conduct worst-case assessments. In general terms, the French army tends to make the German army look stronger than they are. So many elements of French political life shows that the deuxieme bureau is providing. French had a code-breaking section as well. - Italy: SIM was one of the greatest intelligence in the mid-1920s onward. They take advantage of a characteristic of government security that is lacking: physical security. Relatively easy to break into embassies, and take pictures of code-books and get away from it. They penetrate every embassy in Rome and take pictures of their code-books. Prints out these documents, and sends out a copy of them to all their main embassies. Printed material is sent to all embassies around Europe. Diplomats tended to view their embassies as an extension of their households, so they trusted anyone they hired to stay loyal. Trusted enough to make copies of the keys to the safes – and sell these to the Italians. The Italians and the Soviets both have access to the same run of the important information from Britain. Classic example of lack of collection. - Japan’s intelligence also has significance against the United States. In the mid-20s the American navy knows they may have to send their navy through the Pacific. They try to create a code-breaking technology that is based on the Japanese. They become good at it, and reconstruct Japanese naval exercises. They then know how they want to fight. American navy develops small core of code-breakers. The ONI and directors of naval intelligence says you have to promote who can code-break or they will have no one, even though they are unable to command. One of the problems with fitting intelligence into the confines of a military bureaucracy. By the late 1930s, the Americans have a good code-breaking system against one nation: Japan. Their human resources are lacking. They are good on only one form of intelligence against one enemy and are weak on everything else. - Japanese records were destroyed at the end of WWII by the Japanese – so it is difficult to know about their intelligence compared to other major powers. Unusual compared to the others. They have a very aggressive campaign on technological intelligence. They have a huge amount of collection: Firstly, they see themselves as the only non-white power and they therefore represent all of the non-white world. They use this to conduct very powerful political warfare against their enemies. The Japanese try to hire Western military personnel who have specialized in technological intelligence and try to make them full-time spies. They look for American, British, and German...etc. military people whose careers aren’t going very far, and hiring them for intelligence missions. Notable among these is Rutland – who is very experienced at flying aircraft off aircraft carriers. Japanese have an aggressive campaign for finding out aviation techniques, so he fits the bill perfectly in this context. This process of acquiring technological knowledge and hiring foreigners was quite targeted and focused on in this period. The Japanese navy and army work hand in hand with the Japanese firms to make technology transfer work. Rutland in 1930 is put on a huge retainer by the Japanese to provide live intelligence from either California or Hawaii. But his fear sends him back to Britain to confess, and he is then locked away for the rest of the war. Then, the Japanese hire three Germans living in Pearl Harbor. The Japanese are pursuing rather unusual methods of intelligence. No other nations are so fixated on technological intelligence. Their innovation is pretty impressive in this sense too. Japanese consoles: responsible for a lot of things, liaising relations and making friendships. Western countries in the inner-war years see that there is evidence that Japanese have tons of intelligence. The dilemma is that in the later 30s, the Japanese government is trying to become a recognized intelligence hubs. There rises a belief that Japanese people on the coast must be working for the Japanese. January 31, 2014 - British unique in the inter-war years for creating civilian-based intelligence systems, and centralized assessment. Merge their agencies after the war. Usually made up of retired military officers. - Britain merges all of their central intelligence into GCHQ. They try to create a loose union between internal security systems. MI5 (primary security agency), independent security services in colonies called CID (the most successful one being in India). GC and CS. Trying to ensure each component of security has some kind of central body. MI6/SIS, IPI. - GC and CS read the diplomatic traffic of every country on earth by 1918. A huge success. One criticism is that they don’t treat military tracking a priority. It instead goes after the diplomatic traffic. No state’s traffic they cannot break into in the 1920s. Becomes more diffic
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