The consequences can be very costly in terms of lost sales and can even force a company out of business. Learning objectives: understand the three time horizons, explain when to use each of the four qualitative models, apply the naive, moving average, exponential smoothing, and trend methods, compute three measures of forecast accuracy, use a tracking signal. 20have you ever gone to a restaurant and been told that they are sold out of their. Process of predicting a future event. (cid:2) in realities, forecasts are rarely perfect21 (cid:2) most forecasting techniques assume an underlying stability in the system (cid:2) product family and aggregated forecasts are more accurate than individual product forecasts. 21 if the forecaster is accurate, her or she usually makes sure that everyone is aware of his or her talents. Very seldom does one read articles in fortune, forbes, or the.