HIST212 Lecture Notes - Lecture 9: Externalism, Internalism And Externalism, Videotelephony
18 Apr 2018
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Document Summary
Consequences can be unpredictable (we"re not good at predicting beyond 6-12 months) and have unintended results (for example when users take a technology and adapt it to their needs). And future events are not inevitable (it might seem obvious to us, but at the time of the eniac, it was not an expectation that computers would get smaller in fact, the opposite was expected). A study looked at experts" (de ned as on the leading edge of technological change) predictions and determined that 50% end up being correct. Almost nobody correctly anticipated how these would be used: telegraph, telephone, Nobody foresaw that users would reshape the technology. Telegraph: it was decided to build a telegraph network and demonstrate being able to send a message from point a to point b. But people couldn"t imagine why sending a message instantly had value. It took 5 years to nd enough investors.
