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MSCI 432 (10)

Assignment #2 Winter 2010

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Management Sciences
MSCI 432
Binyamin Mantin

MSCI 432.001/633: Production and Service Operations Management, Winter 2010 Assignment # 2  Due by Friday, February 12, 2010, at noon time. Drop your solutions in the MSci432/633 slot of the metal box located in front of CPH 2367 (2nd floor, where CPH building meets E2 building). No late submissions.  Individual submissions. You must indicate whether you have collaborated/cooperated on this assignment with other students. Also indicate whether you are 432.001 or 633.  As a rule, type your solution for all text-dominated lutions. Save paper, submit double-sided and please no fancy marginalia. 1. [6 marks] The number of students spotted at the Grad House in each of the last six weeks has been: t 1 2 3 4 5 61970 Students t 83 10695 91 110 108 a. Use a two-week moving average to forecast the number of students in each of weeks 7 and 10. Also compute the MSE based on the # of students and forecasts for period 1 to 6. To initialize assume x-1x 0100 (i.e., your prediction for the first period is 100). b. A consultant suggests the use of simple (single) exponential smoothing with α=0.1. Use such a procedure to develop forecasts of # of students in weeks 7 and 10. Initialize with F=10t. Also compute MSE and MAD. c. Without redoing all the computations, what would be the forecast of students in week 7 using exponential smoothing if F were 90 instead of 100? t 2. [6 marks] Union Gas reports the following (normalized) figures for gas consumption by households in a metropolitan area of Ontario: Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept.Oct. Nov. Dec. 20079619617310575 39 13 20 37 73 108191 20082721719711088 51 27 23 41 40 107172 20091621819312099 59 33 37 59 95 128201 2228 a. Using a simple (single) exponential smoothing model (with α=0.1), determine the forecast for consumption in (1) February 2010 and (2) June 2012. b. Do the same using the Winters seasonal smoothing model with α=0.2, β=0.05, and δ=0.1. Use the first two years of data for initialization purposes. c. Plot the demand data and the two sets of forecasts. (i) Does there appear to be a point of abrupt change in the demand pattern? (ii) Assess the performance of the Winters model briefly for the different months (without calculating any error measures). (iii) Which method is preferred? 3. [Nahmias 3.12; 4 marks]. The personnel department of the A&M Corporation wants to know how many workers will be needed each month for the next six-month production p
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