PSCI264 Lecture 26: PSCI264 2016 Election and Gender
17 Nov 2016
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Document Summary
Clinton won the majority, but trump had a higher electoral college number. S&p model has been a reliable indicator of presidential party re-election or replacement. Fundamental models are very different from the poll models in the 2016 election. Most polls said clinton, but she actually lost. The election looks like it will be a tie. Due to the economic, political cycles and the fundamentals of the election cycle. According to the fundamental models, she did not underperform. She preformed exactly as she was predicted to perform. Why the election campaign failed to shift the basic prediction of the fundamental models. Why did the people think the campaigns were powerful enough to shift the results. Trump is out of the mold for a typical political candidate. Trump said controversial things and there was a historical record of controversial things he said earlier. Eventually someone would call trump out on his claims and then he would be negatively impacted by it.
