PSYCH207 Lecture Notes - Ultimatum Game, Confirmation Bias, Utility
22 Mar 2013
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Jdm examples: people tend to make an estimate, and then revise it upward because of cost factors, an example of the anchoring and adjusting heuristic. You"re making an initial judgment: graduate school first born children are more likely to have graduate school. How many hotels have a 2nd 10 floors: fair toss coins. The gambler"s fallacy is that the next toss will come up tails. The larger the sample the more that sample will mimic the general distribution. It doesn"t matter how many times a tail will appear, the next toss will still be a 50-50 instance. Sources of decision dfiiculty: conflict decision maker must make tradeoffs across different dimensions (e. g. , car"s power vs. gas mileage; tv"s price quality; spending time at work vs. with family) Uncertainty - outcome of decision often depends on uncertain variables or events (e. g. , future demand for a product; completion time). *when somebody is familiar to you, you tend to overestimate the likelihood of something.
