ECO 2143 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Nominal Interest Rate, Real Interest Rate, Fisher Hypothesis

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31 Mar 2016

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Nominal interest rate i: if i invest 1 dollar today, i"ll receive 1+i dollars in a year. Real interest rate: if i invest the equivalent of one basket of goods today, then i"ll receive 1+r baskets in a year. This is because e rate diluted by the loss of purchasing power. Therefore, 1+rt is the gains from the nominal. The presented discounted values of a sequence of future payments is what they are worth today. When considering an investment project, if their sum if higher than the cost of the project, we should engage in it. Suppose that vt is the present discounted value of a sequence of payments. Let zt be the current payment, zt+1 be the payment in one year, etc. Let"s now assume that we are in uncertainty (we don"t know the payments or the interest rate). vt=zt+zedt+1/(1+it)+zett+2/(1+it)(1+iett+1) t+2/(1+it)(1+it+1) t+1/(1+it)+ze. Assume that i=iet an have a constant z.

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TABLE 66 Stock Prices and Consumer Prices

CITY
Y = Rate of Change, Stock Prices, Percent Per Year
X = Rate of Change, Consumer Prices, Percent Per Year

CITY	Y	X
A	5	4.3
B	11.1	4.6
C	3.2	2.4
D	7.9	2.4
E	25.5	26.4
F	3.8	4.2
G	11.1	5.5
H	9.9	4.7
I	3.3	2.2
J	1.5	4
K	6.4	4
L	8.9	8.4
M	8.1	3.3
N	13.5	4.7
O	4.7	5.2
P	7.5	3.6
Q	4.73.	6
R	8	4
S	7.5	3.9
T	9	2.1

Table 66 gives data on percent change per year stock prices (Y) and consumer prices (X) for a cross section of 20 cities.

******************* answer in "SAS format" please********************* (if possible)

1) Plot the data in scattergram

2) Regress Y on X and examine the residuals from this regression. What do you observe?

3) Since the data for city(E) is unusual, repeat the regression in (2) dropping the data on city(E). Now examine the residuals from this regression. What do you observe?

4) If on the basis of the results in (2) you conclude that there was heteroscedasticity in the error variance but on the basis of the results in (3) you reverse your conclusion, what general conclusions do you draw?

State whether the following statements are true or false. Breifly justify your answer:

5) When autocorrelation is present, OLS estimators are biased as well as inefficient;

6) The R squared values of two models, one involving regression in the first-difference form and another in the level form, are not directly comparable.

7) In the presence of heterscedasticity the usual OLS method always overestimates the standard errors of estimators.

8) If a regression model is mis-specified (e.g., an important variable is ommitted), the OLS residuals will show a distinct pattern.

redcamel374

37.Use the following setup for the next question.

A manufacturing firm is deciding whether or not to invest in a new printer that needs an initial investment of $150,000. The investment would increase cash flows in the first year by $80,000 and in the second year by $75,000.

?If the interest rate is 10% then the net present value of the investment is

?a. $5,000

b. ?- $9,091

?c. -$15,290

?-$21,901

33.

Table 13-16
Listed in the table are the long-run total costs for three different firms.

Quantity	1	2	3	4	5
Firm A	100	100	100	100	100
Firm B	100	200	300	400	500
Firm C	100	300	600	1,000	1,500

Refer to Table 13-16. Which firm is experiencing constant returns to scale?

a.	Firm C only

b. Firm A only

c.	Firm B only

Firm A and Firm B only

27.

Table 13-7
The Flying Elvis Copter Rides

Quantity	Total Cost	Fixed Cost	Variable Cost	Marginal Cost	Average Fixed Cost	Average Variable Cost	Average Total Cost
0	$50	$50	$0	--	--	--	--
1	$150	A	B	C	D	E	F
2	G	H	I	$120	J	K	L
3	M	N	O	P	Q	$120	R

Refer to Table 13-7. What is the value of E?

1. In which market will a company arrange to receive currency for a transaction at a future date?

Select one:

a. the forward market

b. the currency futures market

c. the arbitrage market

d. the forward spot market

2. The U.S. dollar is overvalued and the peso is undervalued in the foreign exchange market

Select one:

a. if a visitor to Mexico from the United States can buy more goods in the United States
than he can buy in Mexico when he converts dollars to pesos.

b. if a visitor to Mexico from the United States can buy the same amount of goods in
Mexico as he can buy in the United States when he converts dollars to pesos.

c. if a visitor to Mexico from the United States can buy more goods in Mexico than he can
buy in the United States when he converts pesos to dollars.

d. if a visitor to Mexico from the United States can buy more goods in Mexico than he can
buy in the United States when he converts dollars to pesos.

3. Given the following data (t is current time; t+1 is time after one period)

E_t = Â¥ 110 = $1

E_t+1 = Â¥ 95 = $1

Current Interest rate in the US = i_US= 8%

If the interest parity condition is expected to hold, interest rates in Japan (i_Japan) should equal approximately:

Select one:

a. 3.38%

b. 8%

c. -5.64%

d. None of the above.

4. Suppose the Japanese interest rate is I% while the interest rate in Britain is 3%. Interest rate parity predicts that relative to the Japanese Yen,

Select one:

a. the British pound will depreciate by 4%.

b. the British pound will appreciate by 2%.

c. the British pound will depreciate by 2%.

d. the British pound will appreciate by 4%.

5. Suppose the U.S. grows more slowly than Canada. The best medium term prediction is that the

Select one:

a. U.S. interest rates will rise.

b. U.S. dollar will appreciate against the Canadian dollar.

c. U.S. dollar will depreciate against the Canadian dollar.

6. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) implies that

Select one:

a. In the long run, a forward exchange rate can purchase an interest rate swap for the same
price as the spot rate.

b. In the medium run, a forward exchange rate can purchase an interest rate swap for the
same price as the spot rate.

c. The short run, a given amount of money can buy the same amount of goods, whether
they are purchased at home or abroad.

d. the long run, a given amount of money can buy the same amount of goods, whether
they are purchased at home or abroad.

7. The current account balance will fall if

Select one:

a. the real exchange rate depreciates and disposable income goes up

b. the real exchange rate appreciates or disposable income goes up

c. the real exchange rate depreciates or disposable income goes down

d. the real exchange rate appreciates and disposable income goes down

8. A person who paid $10 for an umbrella in the U.S. sees the exact same umbrella in a store in London, England for 6 British pounds. If the person could expect the real exchange rate to be 1 U.S. umbrella per 1 English umbrella, then the person could infer that the nominal exchange rate is

Select one:

a. 0.6 U.S. dollars per 1 English pound.

b. 1.67 U.S. dollars per 1 English pound.

c. 0.6 English pounds per I U.S. dollar.

d. 1.67 English pounds per 1 U.S. dollar.

9. A U.S. wine merchant travelling in France has found a French wine of the same quality as a U.S. wine they regularly sell. She assumes that the real exchange rate should be 1 case of U.S. wine equals one case of French wine. The French wine merchant will sell her a case of the French wine for 350 euros. She knows that a case of the equivalent U.S. wine sells for $400. The euro is selling in France for $1.20. Assuming transportation costs are zero, the U.S. wine merchant should

Select one:

a. buy the French wine and sell it in the U.S. and make a profit.

b. buy the U.S. wine and sell it in France and make a profit.

c. It doesn't matter either way; there is no profit in the deal.

d. None of the above.

10. In a fixed exchange rate system, how do countries address the problem of currency market pressures that threaten to lower or raise the value of their currency?

Select one:

a. If demand falls, then countries must increase demand by buying up the excess supply
with domestic currency.

b. If demand rises, countries must fill the excess demand for foreign currency by selling
their reserves.

c. If demand rises, then countries can adjust the value of the exchange rate to the desired
level.

d. A and B only.

ECO 2143 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Nominal Interest Rate, Real Interest Rate, Fisher Hypothesis

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