• Know how to model simple and complex cause & effect relationships.
Steps in the Scientific Method
• 1. Identify the problem. (Literature Review &
• 2. Hypothesize the cause of the problem.
• 3. Provide clear definitions of the concepts.
• 4. Operationalize the concepts.
• 5. Gather empirical data.
• 6. Test the hypothesis or hypotheses.
• 7. Reflect back on theory.
• 8. Publicize the results.
• 9. Replicate the results.
Theories in Causal Models
• Underlying the hypothesized causal connection between attitudes toward
party leaders and voting is a theory about the causes of voting.
• A theory can be defined as “a statement of what are held to be the general
laws, principles or causes of something known or observed.
• Theories are statements about the relationships between concepts
• Statistical techniques largely are able to assess the strength of association,
not the direction of causation.
• The direction of causation is determined by research design, in which the
researcher hypothesizes a direction of causality and underpins this
hypothesis with a more general theory of the causal relationship.
• Relationships between variables and the direction of that relationship
• Basic Causal Models
• Simple Extended Causal Models
• Complex Extended Causal Models