SOC 2106 Lecture Notes - Lecture 16: Transnational Organized Crime, Moral Panic, Symbolic Interactionism
20 Apr 2018
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Document Summary
Genius forecasting relies mainly on intuition and insight; a personal form of trend extrapolation. Trend extrapolation examines trends and cycles in historical data using mathematical techniques to predict future from the past. Strength: roots the future in historical experience. Weakness: the further into the future we try to forecast, the less certain the forecast becomes. Data smoothing methods separate historical data into trends seasonal and random parts. Consensus methods: forecasting complex systems often involves seeking expert opinions from more than one person. Produces a rapid narrowing of opinions among experts. Provides more accurate forecasting than group discussions. Simulation methods use analogs to model complex systems. Game analogs may be used to model the interactions of players in imagined social interactions. Mathematical analogs have been successful in forecasting outcomes, especially in the physical sciences. Multiple regression analysis is the mathematical analog of systems approach. Scenario method narrative based forecast that describes a potential course of events.
