POL208Y5 Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: Bayesian Probability, World War I, Underweight
Document Summary
Have not made psychological peace w/ their losses. Underweight subjective probabilities of failure by treating small probabilities as functionally equivalent to zero. Overweight subjective probabilities of success by treating large probabilities as equivalent to 1. 0: when states are in the domain of losses or haven"t psychologically adjusted to ancient losses, they"re more likely to take the irredentist approach that. States can couple themselves too tightly to allies and get dragged into war (wwi) States can free-ride and mistakenly count on others to take care of the balancing against potential aggressors (wwii: second class concerns potential adversaries. States must balance risk of two conflicting perpetual errors. Type i: incorrectly labelling status quo powers as expansionist, precipitating a conflict spiral. Organizational and domestic accountability pressures: decision makers rarely work in social isolation. Competitive market pressures: the dangers of being too smart, behavioural game theory ( guess-the-number" game)
