PHL145H5 Lecture Notes - Lecture 16: Conjunction Fallacy
Document Summary
Gambler"s fallacy, the conjunction fallacy , regression to the mean, and some common mistakes about coincidence. When outcomes is equally likely to occur. Number of outcomes of interest = number of outcomes of interest. The outcome of interest divided by the total number of cases. Sometimes we don"t know the frequencies and maybe be difficult to calculate the probability. When comprehending large numbers translate them into concrete terms like some stadium hold 10,00 seats. The expected value of fair game is 0. List all possible outcomes, record the probability and the payoff each. Multiply the probability for each outcomes by the payoff for that outcome. Payoff may involve person"s own feeling about things. Believing in god makes most sense using probability. Treating independent events as if they were not independent. Even things out or law of averages. Thinking a conjunction is more probable than either of its conjuncts.
