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Oct. 29 - Uses of Force.docx

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University of Toronto Mississauga
Political Science
Todd Hall

Oct. 29 - Uses of Force 1) “War is a mere continuation of policy by other means...”—On War, Carl von Clausewitz - If policy is the goal, then government seeks to make these policies to achieve the goals - War is just one more tool in the arsenal that governments have to achieve their goals - Different view of war as compared to others – war as a way to achieve certain ends The Uses of Force? Overview - Actual Use of war – dropping bombs, firing guns - Explicit threat of use – use of force through threatening techniques - Capability to use – ability to use 2) Actual Use a. Offense  Deployment of force to capture or destroy  Destruction can be accomplished without capturing territory i. Destruction 1. Counter-force o Targets military capabilities o These include: tanks, guns, C4ISR (communications, intelligence, etc) – functioning infrastructure that allows employment of force o E.g. Pearl Harbor – Dec. 7/1941 – Japanese attack; 10months earlier, President Roosevelt had send military fleet to Hawaii to prevent attacks against Japan; Japan saw US as threat to its stability and expansion therefore, surprised attacked Pearl Harbor; target was military infrastructure and it succeeded; it cleared the way in the south for the Japanese to capture Philippines o Means to destroy military capability 2. Counter-value o Targets non-military assets (cities, population) o Referred to as punishment; meant to make the population to suffer by means of revenge or just to break the will of the citizens o “Take the center of a large city and imagine what would happen among the civilian population during a single attack by a single bombing unit...” – Guilio Douhet  Believed that aerial bombing would be used to break the will of a population = complete breakdown of social infrastructure o Idea is to punish the people so much that they want the war to end, forcing their leaders to withdraw from war o E.g. Tokyo Raid – executed by US Air force – March 9, 1945; dropped incendiary bombs onto the Japanese population with the goal of affecting their will to fight; incendiary bombs ineffective at damaging military infrastructure but effective at destroying wood which is what most of Japanese homes made up => 80 to 100 000 people died = goal was to partially diminish industrial capacity but to 3. Effectiveness: counter-force vs. counter-value o Robert Pape – Bombing to Win  Argues that punishing a population will illicit popular anger and increase willingness to fight rather than break their will and discourage them from withdrawing from the war Why are civilians targeted? - Desperation – as war drags on, states desperate so attack civilians - Territorial Expansion – targets people because it does not wants to capture the land o Alexander Downes, “Desperate Times, Desperate Measures” ii. Capturing territory • To capture territory, still need soldiers => with new technology, can attack from far but one thing persistent: need of soldiers (on the ground) to capture territory • Ability to transport human beings and hold territory becomes important b. Defense  Deployment of force to protect and hold  It is about preventing or eliminating the ability of an adversary to inflict harm on territory  Can be passive – building tank traps; building bunkers that can withstand an attack  Can be active – creating weaponry that will destroy/ shoot down adversary’s advances (planes, rockets, etc) i. Area denial vs. Holding territory • Area denial is the ability to prevent others from accessing an area o E.g. Submarines are great examples  Threaten naval forces such that they can’t enter into certain areas  Anti-aircraft missiles • Shoot down aircrafts that enter • Does not necessarily mean that you control the territory -“hold it” - but you control the access to it (prevent others from entering) 3) Defensive Realism – Robert Jervis a. The Offense-Defense Balance  “the ratio of the cost of forces that the attacker needs to take territory to the cost of the defender’s forces” • Charles Glaser and Chaim Kaufmann, “What is the Offense- Defense Balance and Can We Measure It?”  Easier and cheaper to attack or defend?  Historical data has shown 3:1 ratio for offense-defense i. Technology • Seek warfare – technology has advanced over time, making warfare more • Back then, castle technology was easy for defensive. But then along comes cannons and suddenly it is super easy to blow walls into castle walls = offense technology takes the upper hand. Then quality of o Back and forth between offensive-defensive technology • When you have offensive technology, have greater means to attack and sometimes that is the best defense • E.g. WWI – technology used made it easier to be defensive o Barbed wire – hard to maneuver; enemies could not pass through the barbed wire; massive game changers – made defense so much easier. All you had to do was lay out barb wire and it was incredibly hard to get through => up to 13 000 dead a day. o Tanks – were able to make it over the barb wire; introduced late in the war so impact not great; they stalled a lot and were big, obvious targets to adversary 1. Attrition vs. Blitzkrieg (WW2) o Made offensive easy – by WW2, tank technology advanced o Blitzkrieg  Encirclement – cuts off supplies and attack o WW1 was a war of attrition – grinding down of will to fight  Goal was to kill as many of the offensive as possible o WW2 – more defensive; i.e. Blitzkrieg strategy ii. Geography • Geographical conditions and location make offense and defense either difficult or easy iii. Stability and the Offense-Defense Balance • Offense Rules o Attacking can be profitable – e.g. WW2 – Hitler marching intro France o Advantage of attacking first (offense becomes the best defense) => makes the world very unstable • Defense Rules o Attacking is costly  If protected by defensive measures, you can sit back and not worry. Offensive has to spend a lot of resources into o Patience pays => makes the world more stable • Think about samurai movies vs. gunfight (cowboy) movies = Metaphor o Waiting for opportunity with the sword – waiting for attack by sword to defend; stand-off o Gunfight – cannot stop a bullet; person who draws first win; whoever draws first has incentive to draw first because if you wait, you’re dead • In a world where defense rules, attacking is not attractive • Where offense rules, the world is unstable • Dyadic theory – can look at two different states and how this applies b. Offense-Defense Distinguishability  Can distinguish between offensive-defensive weapons, thus, showing intention of state  States can signal their intentions by the types of weapons that they develop • Tank traps, forts, etc, stable way to show defensive mode c. Critics  Military actions can be taken in either offensive or defensive depending on how it is interpreted  Issue: what weapons are offense and defense?  No way to distinguish = any good defence needs offense weapons  Any defensive force can be used offensively if preparing for attack  Are the two, therefore, really distinguishable? 4) Threat of Force a. Compellent Threat  A threatens B with use of force if B does not do X  E.g. Aug. 2, 1990 – Iraq – UN asked for resolution. Called for Iraq to pull out or if not, states can use any means to get Iraq to get out. b. Deterrent Threat  A threatens B with use of for
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