ANTB15H3 Lecture Notes - Lecture 11: Blood Sugar, James V. Neel, Insulin Resistance

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8 Dec 2013
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Epidemiological Transition- December 2, 2013- Lecture 11
There’s no smallpox ANYWHERE in the world, except in biological labs (no
one has immunity over this)
1. THE AGE OF PESTILENCE & FAMINE
Life expectancy between 20 and 40
2. AGE OF RECEDING PANDEMICS
Pandemics and marked peaks
Life expectancy about 30 to 50
Varying
3. AGE OF DEGENERATIVE DISEASES
Life expectancy around 70
Epidemiological Transition
Originally proposed by Omran in 1971
Belief that populations health profile changes over time
Two constants
The assumption that the economic development of countries takes place in
stages
The assumption of the epidemiological transition as a natural destiny of
societies, a path that all countries, sooner or later have to follow
> The reason of change in birth rate and death rate is economics
Better housing, food, quality of life -> will help u and your children
Natural destiny: for all populations to go through this epidemiological transition
The shift in the main causes of death from infectious diseases to degenerative
cardiovascular diseases and cancers
The impact of medical science is not reflected in the epidemiological
transition (it would have happened no matter what)
Medical intervention plays a role, but not so much of a big role
Leading cause of death is diarrhea -> you prevent it by getting clean water
Omran’s postulates
Continued to be used as if they constituted a theory of general validity
And more recently as a technical tool for health care planning
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