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Lecture 11

ANTB15- Dec 7- Lecture 11- Epi. transition.docx

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Larry Sawchuk

Epidemiological Transition- December 2, 2013- Lecture 11  There’s no smallpox ANYWHERE in the world, except in biological labs (no one has immunity over this) 1. THE AGE OF PESTILENCE & FAMINE Life expectancy between 20 and 40 2. AGE OF RECEDING PANDEMICS Pandemics and marked peaks Life expectancy about 30 to 50 Varying 3. AGE OF DEGENERATIVE DISEASES Life expectancy around 70 Epidemiological Transition • Originally proposed by Omran in 1971 • Belief that population’s health profile changes over time Two constants • The assumption that the economic development of countries takes place in stages • The assumption of the epidemiological transition as a natural destiny of societies, a path that all countries, sooner or later have to follow > The reason of change in birth rate and death rate is economics Better housing, food, quality of life -> will help u and your children Natural destiny: for all populations to go through this epidemiological transition • The shift in the main causes of death from infectious diseases to degenerative cardiovascular diseases and cancers • The impact of medical science is not reflected in the epidemiological transition (it would have happened no matter what) Medical intervention plays a role, but not so much of a big role Leading cause of death is diarrhea -> you prevent it by getting clean water Omran’s postulates • Continued to be used as if they constituted a theory of general validity • And more recently as a technical tool for health care planning Y = life expectancy X= Standard of living -> as this goes up for men, in various countries, life expectancy goes up Recent trends in Industrialized Countries • Mortality statistics for New York between 1866 and 1923 – Distinct fall in the overall death rate – A steady, impressive rise in death rate from diabetes – In the over 45 year old age group
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