Class Notes (903,542)
CA (538,021)
UTSC (32,632)
EESA10H3 (542)
Lecture 7

Notes based on Video shown in Lecture 7

6 Pages
111 Views

Department
Environmental Science
Course Code
EESA10H3
Professor
Jovan Stefanovic

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Video 3: Laurie Garrett on lessons from the 1918 flu
Speed of global travel is increasing in relation to world population growth: made it
necessary for everybody to be everywhere all the time – this means that the microbes are also
moving with you
Greater threat complexity ... And global scale of risk ad challenge
In a pandemic, every city, suburb and town would be a Katrina – at the same time (cannot
depend on government to be ready at hand and capable of handling things) – an outbreak
would be multiple Katrinas at once
Major concern at the moment: Avian Influenza (Bird Flu)
oH5N1: first emerged in Guangdong, China, 1997 (1996?)
oIn December 2005 the H1N1 virus had surfaced in birds and/or people in 13
countries
oBy December 2006 the virus had surfaced in 55 countries
oIn the world outbreak, the whole world has seen this virus except the Americas
oMore than 300 million chickens have been culled, or have died. H1N1 is 100%
fatal to chickens: an unheard of mortality rate
oThe spread of bird flu is linked directly to the bird migration patterns
oSo far we have seen small outbreaks in human populations in clusters
oThe virus has muted dramatically in the last few years to form two distinct families
of H1N1 virus
Why Worry?: Avian Flu
oVaccine production: slow, cellular so far unsuccessful, now trivalent, maximum
capacity 260 million
oForeign policy fallout of denying vaccine to the nations
oLikely death toll would dwarf all but thermonuclear threats
Regional contamination through airplane travel restrictions?
oMaybe: Post 9/11 air travel dropped by 27%, and slowed onset of U.S. flu season
by 2 weeks.
www.notesolution.com
oNo: Even 99% border and airport closures cannot delay pandemic flu arrival by
more than 2 weeks: virus is too contagious
oNo: math models show air travel restrictions are of “surprisingly little value
Disturbing finding:
oTigers fed dead chickens developed H5N1 flu: more than 50% died of it. The virus
in the raw meant is transmissible
oStudy in 2007 of 500 stray cats in H5N1 effected area finds a remarkable 20% of
them have antibodies to the virus
oDomestic cats fed H1N1 – contaminated meat succumb
oExperimentally exposed ferrets (and mice) develop typical flu respiratory
symptoms, but also diarrhea, CNS disturbances, hind keg paralysis and 100% death
Reconstruction of 1918 strain reveals that, like H1N5, it:
oOriginated in the birds, and jumped from avian to human
oThe jump occurred as a result of incremental mutations over time
oInfected people suffered extreme immune responses, including ARDS
oSome people drowned in their own fluid
Disturbing findings:
oDeath toll in humans, 1997-spring 2005 is 55%
oDeaths include ARDS and complex immune response
oSyndrome confirmed to be identical to that seen in 1918 pandemic
oMost of the deceased are under 35 years of age
Disturbing findings:
oVirus de-regulates entire immune system (study by US and Canadian teams
2007)
oDeliberate infection of monkeys with 1918 influenza, causes:
Disease within 24 hours; death within 8 days
Down-regulation of RIG-1, causing immune system to ‘run wild’
Release of an unknown factor that promotes viral reproduction on a
massive scale
www.notesolution.com

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Description
Video 3: Laurie Garrett on lessons from the 1918 flu Speed of global travel is increasing in relation to world population growth: made it necessary for everybody to be everywhere all the time this means that the microbes are also moving with you Greater threat complexity ... And global scale of risk ad challenge In a pandemic, every city, suburb and town would be a Katrina at the same time (cannot depend on government to be ready at hand and capable of handling things) an outbreak would be multiple Katrinas at once Major concern at the moment: Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) o H5N1: first emerged in Guangdong, China, 1997 (1996?) o In December 2005 the H1N1 virus had surfaced in birds andor people in 13 countries o By December 2006 the virus had surfaced in 55 countries o In the world outbreak, the whole world has seen this virus except the Americas o More than 300 million chickens have been culled, or have died. H1N1 is 100% fatal to chickens: an unheard of mortality rate o The spread of bird flu is linked directly to the bird migration patterns o So far we have seen small outbreaks in human populations in clusters o The virus has muted dramatically in the last few years to form two distinct families of H1N1 virus Why Worry?: Avian Flu o Vaccine production: slow, cellular so far unsuccessful, now trivalent, maximum capacity 260 million o Foreign policy fallout of denying vaccine to the nations o Likely death toll would dwarf all but thermonuclear threats Regional contamination through airplane travel restrictions? o Maybe: Post 911 air travel dropped by 27%, and slowed onset of U.S. flu season by 2 weeks. www.notesolution.com
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