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EESA10H3 (490)
Lecture 7

Notes based on Video shown in Lecture 7

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University of Toronto Scarborough
Environmental Science
Jovan Stefanovic

Video 3: Laurie Garrett on lessons from the 1918 flu Speed of global travel is increasing in relation to world population growth: made it necessary for everybody to be everywhere all the time this means that the microbes are also moving with you Greater threat complexity ... And global scale of risk ad challenge In a pandemic, every city, suburb and town would be a Katrina at the same time (cannot depend on government to be ready at hand and capable of handling things) an outbreak would be multiple Katrinas at once Major concern at the moment: Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) o H5N1: first emerged in Guangdong, China, 1997 (1996?) o In December 2005 the H1N1 virus had surfaced in birds andor people in 13 countries o By December 2006 the virus had surfaced in 55 countries o In the world outbreak, the whole world has seen this virus except the Americas o More than 300 million chickens have been culled, or have died. H1N1 is 100% fatal to chickens: an unheard of mortality rate o The spread of bird flu is linked directly to the bird migration patterns o So far we have seen small outbreaks in human populations in clusters o The virus has muted dramatically in the last few years to form two distinct families of H1N1 virus Why Worry?: Avian Flu o Vaccine production: slow, cellular so far unsuccessful, now trivalent, maximum capacity 260 million o Foreign policy fallout of denying vaccine to the nations o Likely death toll would dwarf all but thermonuclear threats Regional contamination through airplane travel restrictions? o Maybe: Post 911 air travel dropped by 27%, and slowed onset of U.S. flu season by 2 weeks.
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