ESTB01H3 Lecture Notes - Lecture 12: Enkidu, Homo Economicus, Simulacrum

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The biggest dangers to a company are the ones you don"t see coming. Climatic change and ecosystem health challenge us to assess the value of knowledge because of the extended time scales involved and the lack of markets more many forest values. Managers need to recognize what"s missing from the picture". Companies in complex, rapidly changing environments must have strong peripheral vision. Knowledge as an input variable in the production process was formalized by hayek (1945). Counterfactuals: if kangaroos had no tails, they would topple over (lewis, 1973) We need a way of speaking about the long term future so that anyone can add to the discussion. Value lies in how scenarios are in (and provide links between) organizational process such as strategy making, innovation, risk management, public affairs, and leadership development. Scenarios enable shell executives to open their minds to previously inconceivable developments. Unfortunately we"re unable to see and identify all of the forces at play (davidson, 1967-1976).

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