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Lecture 3

Week 3 Lecture Note

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University of Toronto Scarborough

Professor will put a study guide online by beginning of next week for midterm exam Content of midterm exam consists of all sessions prior to midterm exam Essay due on March 2 nd Week 3 Fertility causes poverty, right? Population growth is determined by three factors: fertility rate, mortality rate, and net immigration Net immigration = immigration emigration o If positive, then would have net immigration Fertility patterns 2006 Total fertility rate = number of children per woman who is in the age that she could get children Total fertility rate = sum of fertility rate of every woman from usually 15-50 Different fertility rates mean you have different population growth given that the mortality rate and net immigration is not accounted for Total fertility rate of 2.1 is usually considered to be the replacement fertility Replacement fertility = population of a certain area keeps at the level at the moment Usually, 2.1 children per woman, can be up to 3.3 in areas where mortality rate is higher such as Africa Everything above this rate means population growth, everything below this rate means population decline A fertility rate of about 2.5 means that the population doubles in about 60 years A fertility rate of about 3.5 means that the population doubles in about 30 years Population pyramids 1994 Three patterns of population change o Rapid growth: Kenya High fertility rates Usually more younger generation 50% of population is 15 years of age or younger o Slow growth: United States Amount of young people in US, Canada, or Germany, are much smaller than in countries like Kenya, Nigeria, or Uganda Baby boomers caused the bump in the middle of the graph, was caused by numerous children born after the war, and was before contraceptive period There were more baby boomers in US than in Germany because were more prosperous Also because US got far more immigrants who came from countries that had higher fertility rates Fertility rate for US is 2.1 means that they are sustaining their population
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