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L12 Limits to health in the 21st century and future challenges
- change in temperature, distribution - extreme weather conditions (desertification, melting ice)
- losing capacity to grow/sustain life with adequate soil (due to erosion), water (due to privatization)
for productivity Æ erosion of civilization
- demographic pressures led to land degradation + increase hydro-stress on water
- water is generally the source of life and is necessary to maintain life
1. health risks are increasing
2. extreme weather events are likely to increase
3. ongoing health gains especially in low-income/vulnerable populations
4. health sector has generally been slow to recognize and respond to risk
- inadequate capacity building
- deficient contact/engagement with other sectors
5. society is slow to understand that threat to health is the most serious, fundamental risk
- population health determines 'sustainability'
Æ interlinkages between health impacts and policy responses
- usages of land are responsible for climate change
- as population increases/intensity of economic/agricultural practices -- nature + human pressure on
the environment
- water wars in the future
- environmental refugees - obliged to leave land to migrate to other areas due to harsh living
conditions with high population density
As a consequence of (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007)
- water: 75-250m of Africans may face water-shortage by 2020 (mainly Middle-east and South
- crops: rain-fed agriculture could decline by 50% in some African countries by 2020
- crop yields could increase by 20% in some parts of Southeast Asian but decrease up to 30%
in Central/South Asia
- glaciers and snow cover: expected to decline, reducing the supply of melted water to major
regions/cities (depended on for freshwater source)
- species: 20-30% of all plant and animal species face increased risk of extinction as a result of a 1.5-
2.5degC rise
Æ warming temperatures threaten the viability to survive
- changes in physical systems affects food yields and biological/seasonal cycles which in turn, affects
the economy & in instances, directly to human health [injuries/death, thermal stress, infectious
diseases, malnutrition, mental stresses, conflict, wars, etc]
Æ climate change has the ability to alter vectors (mosquitoes/rodents) in increasing the transfer of
infectious diseases e.g. malaria and dengue fever
- malnutrition Æ diarrhea Æ malaria Æ floods
projected health impacts of climate change
- increased malnutrition and consequent disorders, disease and injury due to heatwaves, floods,
storms, fires, and droughts
- changed range of some infectious disease vectors
- mixed effects on malaria, increased burden of diarrheal diseases
- increased cardio-respiratory morbidity and morality associated with ground-level O3
- some benefits of health (due to warming)
Dengue Fever
- characterized with high temperatures, not very dangerous
- hemorragic dengue (high fatality)
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