HLTC21H3 Lecture Notes - Lecture 5: Herd Immunity, Basic Reproduction Number, Mathematical Modelling Of Infectious Disease
Document Summary
Infectious disease modelling: tool for the analysis of policy options. Not possible to decide by pure reasoning. Connect the individual-level process of transmission with a population-level description. Focus on essential processes involved in shaping the epidemiology of an infectious disease. Hamer in 1906 used modelling to argue that an epidemic can come to an end. Kermack and mckendrick (1927) - basis for sir modelling and ro. Based on your knowledge, which diseases require or make use of mathematical modelling: sir model. Basic assumption human population is subdivided into 3 groups: susceptible persons (s) infected persons (i) removed persons (r) Movements in and out of these groups via: Birth rate=(1-p) : recovery birth rate = , p =fraction of vaccinated newborns. = q: =contact rate q=probability of transmission. Where n =total population size = i / n. Ds/dt = (1-p) - s(1/n) - s. Di/dt = s (i/n) - i - i. Dr/dt = p + i - r.
