MGMD02H3 Lecture Notes - Lecture 1: Spring Break, Google Search, Observational Error
Document Summary
Pick a camera, inferior (cheapest), moderate (second cheapest), high performance (most expensive) > people choose the middle one. Which spring break location would you choose: average everything, or some parts are extremely good and some are bad > the second one. Which spring break location would you cancel: average everything, or some parts are extremely good and some are bad > also the second one. ,000 now or ,000 in a year: the latter is obviously better, but people tend to choose the rst one. Simple, quick, and easy intuitive rule of thumb used to approximate the correct answer. Usually leads to the right answer but can lead to systematic error (a. k. a bias) Analogous to visual heuristics (e. g. , blurriness = distance) In both cases, the reason people use the heuristic is because: the answer is dif cult or impossible (normative solution unavailable) the heuristic is ecologically valid.
