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Lecture

Lecture Notes


Department
Political Science
Course Code
POLB92H3
Professor
Lucan Way

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LECTURE 11
Colored Revolutions 2000-2004
What you learned last week
Linkage versus Leverage
Rise of EU/democratic conditionality
Role of international factors in explaining democratization in Albania,
Romania
Overview of lecture
Explaining the color revolutions 2000-2004
Serbia 2000
Georgia 2003
Ukraine 2004
Voluntarist explanation
Diffusion
Structural explanation
State/Party weakness
End of Communism in Eastern Europe
1989-1991 Collapse of Communism
Poland (June 1989)
Hungary (June-October 1989),
Czechoslovakia (November 1989)
East Germany (November 1989)
Bulgaria (November 1989)
Romania (December 1989)
Albania (1990-1991)
Croatia (1990)
Slovenia (1990)
Serbia (1990)
End of Communism leads to mixed outcomes
Democracies
Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania
Closed autocracies
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tadikistan, Turkmenistan,
Uzbekistan
Hybrid Regimes
Slovakia, Romania, Serbia, Croatia
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Russia,
Ukraine
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Colored Revolutions 2000-2005
Wave of post-post-Communist breakdowns
Slovakia 1998
Serbia 2000
Georgia 2003
Ukraine 2004
Kyrgyzstan 2005
2 explanations
Voluntarist: Diffusion of opposition strategies/ demonstration
effect
Impact of previous revolutions on other revolutions
Serbia 2000-->Georgia 2003-->Ukraine 2004
Explaining Color Revolutions
What was spread was an electoral model
Opposition uses elections to overthrow autocrats
Regional diffusion of opposition strategies à authoritarian
breakdown: Serbia 00-->Georgia 03-->Ukraine 04
“electoral model
oNon-violence (Gene Sharp)
oYouth movements
oOpposition unity
oFocus on opposition protests
Diffusion makes events happen where otherwise unimaginable"
2. Structural:
Strength of party/state
Weak state --> Collapse in face of protest
Weak party --> Leadership division in face of crisis
Autocratic stability
Strong party:
Maintains elite cohesion in face of crisis
Mobilizes support/vote fraud
2. Strong coercive state
Cohesion in face of crisis (army/military successfully face down
protests)
Successful low intensity coercion low level harassment
prevents emergence of strong opposition
Bulldozer revolution in Serbia 2000
Serbian Opposition in the 1990's of Milosevic
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Serbian opposition in the 1990s
Opposition highly mobilized but highly divided
Major demonstrations in 1991, 1992, 1996-1997
Highly divided
oSeselj
Thought the problem with Milosevic was that he
was not fighting hard enough and killing many minorities
oVuk Draskovic
oDjindjic
oKostunica
War in Kosovo 1999
Kosovo Liberation Army actions in Kosovo
Increased Serb actions in Kosovo
Serbs refuse NATO troops in Kosovo
War in Kosovo March 24-June 10, 1999
Unwillingness of NATO to commit ground troops
Air campaign
Initially bombing helps Milosevic
But later under Russian pressure Milosevic backs down
Serbia after the War
Milosevic regime very weak
Weak State
oInfrastructure in collapse increased sanctions
oWage arrears
Unable to pay the wages for the workers
oWinter approaching
oMilosevic calls early elections for early presidential
election
Opposition Strategy
Opposition (almost) unite into DOS/Kostunica
Mostly unified
Kostunica was popular
oIn 2000 considered relatively clean and potentially
powerful
Gene Sharp and non-violent action
Otpor youth movement
Founded in 1998 in Serbia
Humor to make Milosevic look ridiculous
oBaby rattles
oUsed to undermine the authoritarian regime
Became very powerful as an opposition to Milosevic
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