POLA84 Wk 04.pdf

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University of Toronto Scarborough
Political Science
Christopher Cochrane

Week 4, “Old” Governance vs. “New” Governance: The (Nation)State and Global Governance Institutions and Global Economy “OLD” or Traditional or Westphalian “Global” Governance Outline I. Aspects of Power A. Power and Influence B. Soft Power 1. Power of Agenda Setting 2. Power of Ideas, Norms and Values C. Power and Capability II. National Capabilities: Tangible Elements A. Geography and Demography B. Economic and Military Resources C. Comparing Capabilities: Indexes of Power III. National Capabilities: Intangible Elements A. Intelligence 1. Goals, Plans and Intentions 2. Knowledge of the Other 3. Feedback IV. Diplomatic Influence A. Five Substantive Functions of Diplomacy B. Negotiation and Bargaining C. Conflict Resolution V. Military and Economic Influence A. Use of Force B. Threatening to Use Force C. Beyond the Use of Force D. Economic Persuasion Summary I. Aspects of Power. National power can be thought of as a relationship. It takes on meaning only as it affects a state’s behavior toward another state or international actor. The menu of any state, then, is constrained or affected not only by its own capabilities, goals, policies, and actions but also by those of the other entity with which it interacts—by the state’s attempts to influence others and by the attempts of others to influence it. Broadly defined, power is the ability to overcome obstacles and influence outcomes. Power can be seen as a set of national capabilities or as a process of exercising influence. Influence can mean coaxing another country into stopping an action it is already pursuing, in which case it is called compellence [A policy aimed at influencing another state or nonstate actor to stop an action it is already pursuing; also called “coercive diplomacy”]. In contrast, deterrence [A policy aimed at influencing another state or nonstate actor to not do something it would otherwise prefer aims to keep an actor from doing something it would normally do.] If a nation has potential influence, which is hard to measure, other countries may not attempt certain actions for fear of reprisal. Relationships between states can be seen in two ways: First, we can look at how two states compare on a set of national attributes or characteristics. Second, we can look at the actual set of interactions between pairs of states. We will be concerned with both power as a set of national attributes or capabilities and power as a process of exercising influence. Capability and influence become 1 meaningful only when compared with the capabilities of others and their own attempts to influence outcomes. Comparison implies measurement; a key question in international relations is how much power an actor has. In looking at power both as a set of capabilities and as influence, we highlight the problems of creating indicators to measure power. A. Power and Influence. In an era of growing interdependence, power may simply mean the ability to have an impact on the behavior of other actors—to affect the opportunities available to others and their willingness to choose particular courses of action, which is possible even for a small and relatively weak actor. Some people see power as the ability to reduce uncertainty in the environment, and for some it is a means to an end. For others power has come to mean causality, because explaining who has power explains why things happen. Realism is a view of international politics that begins with the observation that actors seek power and aim to dominate others. This view of power is centered on struggle among sovereign states within the anarchic international system and is usually characterized by the use and manipulation of military resources. Other observers, however, object to the realists’ emphasis on constant struggle and their highly conflictual, coercive, and militaristic interpretation of the concept of power. They argue that although power is central to international politics, it takes many forms. Power is not exercised only in situations of armed conflict or potential armed conflict but also through influencing setting the agenda and influencing rules in a variety of arenas including trade. B. Soft Power. Soft power is a more subtle form of structural influence over the values held by other states. Soft power is a way to exercise influence through attraction, as opposed to coercion (hard power). Influencing the agenda of issues under consideration is a form of soft power. Powerful states can influence more than the choices of other states; they also influence other states’ menus by removing some options altogether. This has been called “structural power” because it involves the ability of state A to influence the context or environment surrounding state B’s decisions—that is, the structure of the situation in which B finds itself. Structural power enables one country to influence the environment surrounding another country's decisions Once the purview of radical scholars of world politics, this notion of power has become widely accepted and applied by realists and liberals as well. 1. Power of Agenda Setting. Foreign policymakers know well the importance of controlling the agenda; human rights violations and other nondemocratic practices are usually declared to be internal affairs (matters of national sovereignty) by states subjected to international criticism. That the issue of human rights is in fact increasingly discussed by states gives some indication of the structural power exercised by the United States and other Western democracies in world politics. By concentrating exclusively on whether and to what extent states such as China or Iran or Cuba actually change their behavior in response to U.S. policy, we might miss this more subtle exercise of power. 2. Power of Ideas, Norms and Values. Another, even more subtle, form of structural power is influence over the values held by other states, and therefore what they take to be their own interests, goals, and desired outcomes. When the state’s culture, ideology, and institutions enjoy widespread appeal—for instance, American-style democracy and free-market capitalism—other explicit and more transparent exercises of power are unnecessary. “Indeed, is it not the supreme exercise of power to get another or others to have the desires you want them to have . . . to secure their compliance by controlling their thoughts and desires?” This is the dimension of power that radical political theorist Antonio Gramsci had 2 in mind when he discussed the “hegemony” of one class over another. Like those realists who predict that the predominance of U.S. military power will be met by the rise of new challengers, restoring the equilibrium of a balance of power, some believe that there are limits to soft power as well, and that Americans need to brace themselves for a “clash of civilizations.” C. Power and Capability. National attributes or capabilities greatly influence the menu of activity available to states. What is possible or probable relates to the means at one’s disposal. This is especially important in gauging the actions and reactions of specific states in specific situations. Capabilities include any physical object, talent, or quality that can be used to affect the behavior (or desires) of others. Capabilities are important because they affect others’ perceptions, including what one has the opportunity to do and what one is willing to do. Threats and promises are common instruments of influence, but they have to be credible. For a threat or promise to be credible, the targeted party has to believe that the other party is able to carry it out. Credibility, of course, also implies a perceived willingness to carry out a threat If threats and promises do not work, often punishments (political, economic, or military) are carried out. States require capabilities in order to impose the costs or the pain necessary to coerce others to behave as they wish. By doing so, and by doing so effectively, a state also enhances its credibility by showing that it is willing to carry out threats in a way that gets results. If this occurs, then at some point in the future threats may not have to be carried out; the mere hint of punishment will bring about the desired action. Thus, reputation can be central to successful compellence or deterrence. II. National Capabilities: Tangible Elements. National capabilities are resources that a state can draw upon in order to achieve a desired outcome, some of which are more tangible than others. Those who study international power and influence usually develop a set of attributes on which a state’s power is based, consisting of some sort of power inventory or power potential. It is often not important which specific set of attributes is used. What is important is that the analyst of international politics has some such system for representing the variety of possible power bases; without a systematic and explicit checklist, the analyst is likely to pay far too much attention to certain power attributes and forget about others completely. Power and influence are multifaceted and depend on a combination of capabilities. A. Geography and Demography. A nation's capabilities can be measured through tangible elements such as population, land mass, demographics, natural resources, economic output, and military strength. States are constantly assessed in terms of size. The national attributes of land mass and population are central elements of a state's base of power. Wealth and material development are important. The skill-set of the population is important as well. Another aspect of a state's human resources involves the health and well-being of the population. We also must look at the age, sex, and spatial distribution of a population and the quality of human resources—the degree to which a people’s capabilities have been developed by education or good health care so that they can contribute to the state’s economic, military, and cultural bases of power. B. Economic and Military Resources. A states economy is vital to its ability to wield influence in world politics. The wealth and economic growth of a state are also related to the availability of natural resources. Economic production relative to population is a good indicator of economic development (GNP). Military capability is a crucial element of state power. C. Comparing Capabilities: Indexes of Power. Although a large population is an important factor in providing a country with the potential for great-power status, the quality of its people—their level of human development—can be the difference between population as a national resource and population as a burden. A useful indicator has been constructed by 3 the UN Development Programme (UNDP), which examines countries’ achievements in “three basic dimensions of human development—longevity, knowledge and a decent standard of living.” The UNDP’s human development index (HDI) is a composite measure consisting of life expectancy, educational attainment (literacy rate, school enrollment), and per capita income. The Correlates of War Project provides another index of power. The measure combines demographic capabilities (urban and total population), industrial capabilities (energy consumption, iron and steel production), and military capabilities (military expenditures and number of armed forces). Thus, the COW composite index is a measure of states’ material capabilities; it does not include such components as the quality of human resources. III. National Capabilities: Intangible Elements. Intangibles that indicate a country's capabilities include the political, social, and economic structures that permit the government to utilize the country's resources. A government must maintain those political, social, and economic structures that will permit it to mobilize for governmental use the resources that exist within its borders and to convert those resources into instruments of foreign policy influence. When looking at the political system of any state, we must ask whether that system efficiently administers the nation-state’s resources. Can the resources be converted into capabilities, and capabilities into influence? A. Intelligence. A nation's capability in the area of intelligence gathering is another intangible. Intelligence is the ability to collect and analyze information. To know how to act, how to respond, and whether to continue one’s policies or to correct them, a government needs information. To know how to influence states or other international actors, a government needs information about them. The information that governments seek falls into three broad categories: 1. Goals, Plans and Intentions. The first type of information deals with the goals, plans, and intentions of other international actors. States can steer more carefully through the international environment with foreknowledge of the impending behavior of other states 2. Knowledge of the Other. The second kind of information is knowledge of others’ military and economic strength, internal political situation, domestic unrest, and, in the case of transnational actors, the scope of their organization and bases of operation. Much intelligence work involves the collection of a great deal of information about other states, using readily available sources of information and standard research techniques; other work is clandestine and sometimes raises difficult ethical questions. 3. Feedback. The third type of information is feedback. Governments seek information about the effects of their own decisions and actions on the international environment, and steer accordingly. Feedback helps a government determine whether to continue its policies or to alter them in some way. IV. Diplomatic Influence. Diplomacy usually involves direct, government-to-government contact whereby officials interact in order to communicate desires and accomplish goals on behalf of states. Thus, diplomacy can be considered the central technique of foreign policy implementation, and the only truly direct technique. The central feature of diplomacy is communication. Most of the legal trappings of diplomacy were established to maintain and facilitate communication and to reduce misunderstanding and distortion in interstate communication. The rules of protocol were established to reduce conflicts over rank and status among diplomats; diplomatic immunity prevents host governments from interfering with the diplomatic representatives of other states; norms of noninterference prohibits diplomats from 4 becoming involved in the domestic political processes of their hosts. These practices permit representatives to get on with the business of diplomacy, and they constitute an important pillar of international law. A. Diplomacy has five substantive functions: 1. conflict management 2. solution of problems facing two or more governments 3. the increase and facilitation of crosscultural communication on a wide range of issues 4. negotiation and bargaining on specific issues, treaties, and agreements 5. general program management of the foreign policy decisions of one country in regard to another B. Negotiation and Bargaining. Bargaining is important for achieving influence, particularly in a world of growing interdependence among states. Diplomatic persuasion occurs in world politics more often than we think. Bargaining is very important for achieving influence in an interdependent world. Bargaining can be tacit or occur through explicit negotiations. Bargaining involves the complex interactions of mutual influence and expectations, with each party both anticipating and reacting to the other. The bargaining process can be tacit, whereby intentions are demonstrated through behavior rather than direct communication, or it can occur through explicit negotiations. The objective is to get the opponent to agree with you as much as possible in achieving a solution to the problem, while minimizing the costs to yourself. Bargaining resembles a game, in which each party must take into account “the potentialities and evaluations of alternative outcomes” and the object is to outwit the opponent. Thus, persuasion as well as threats and promises are employed in bargaining, as each side presents its conditions and demands and attempts to convince or coerce the other side to accept as many of these as possible. C. There are two stages to the negotiation and bargaining process. 1. Commitment to deal in good faith 2. Bargaining over the actual terms of the agreement D. Conflict Resolution. Conflicts can be resolved in many ways. The use or threat of the use of force is one way. But conflicts are also resolved through diplomacy: negotiated compromise, third-party mediation or arbitration, or adjudication of some other sort (by international courts, multilateral conferences or international organizations). Parties must be willing to confront the issues in dispute in a rational atmosphere of some mutual respect and open communication. Each side must try to identify the genuine differences between them and avoid taking positions merely to establish favorable conditions for the bargaining process. V. Military and Economic Influence. Throughout history rulers have used war and violence to prevail in conflict and to overcome obstacles. Influence may be achieved through the application
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