POLA84 Wk 05-1.pdf

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Political Science
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Christopher Cochrane

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Week 5, “Old” Governance vs. “New” Governance: The (Nation)State and Global Population Issues I. Population and Demographics. At the heart of most ecological issues, among others, is the question of population. Three central problems arise from the pressures of population growth. 1. Dwindling Food Supply. The first was highlighted by Malthus: the dwindling of world food supplies. The possibility of starvation is not the only Malthusian outcome. If population growth strains food resources, then malnutrition will continue to limit the mental and physical development of children and the energies and abilities of adults—in other words, the quality of the population. 2. Relative Deprivation. The second problem is discontent resulting from deprivation. This pertains to the resentment felt among people who find themselves on the short end of an inequitable distribution of resources (including food) brought about by uneven patterns of population growth. 3. Environmental Decay. The third problem, perhaps most emphasized, is ecological. Increases in population inevitably increase the demands for natural resources, thus generating ever greater environmental decay. Fortunately, demographers do not expect a continuation of present exponential growth rates in population. The present burst in population growth is due to the drastic reduction in death rates from public health improvements in the last 200 years, which is part of the demographic transition. [ A process of falling death rates and then falling birthrates experienced by developing societies, in the middle stages of which population growth is a] While thest developed world has reached the final stage of the demographic transition, where birth and death rates are very low, the developing world has maintained high birthrates alongside relatively low death rates. This trend of uneven population growth is a major factor in world food trade patterns. A. Human Population Explosion. The revolutions in industrial production technology, along with the medical and hygienic advances responsible for much of the increase in population, have combined to increase human consumption, and with consumption comes resource depletion and pollution. A range of future projections have been made by the UN Population Division, and these show world population stabilizing around 2040, 2060, or 2110, depending on which scenario is adopted. All three scenarios assume some decline in fertility rates, but the intermediate projection is based on roughly the same downward trend in fertility rates witnessed since the early 1970s. B. Demographic Transition. It took from 1800 to 1930 to add 1 billion people to the world’s population; the most recent billion arrived in a little more than a decade. Developing societies go through a demographic transition. In the first stage, typified by birthrates and death rates are relatively high. Medicine and health care are underdeveloped. Deaths from disease are common, but there are also many births in order to provide enough laborers for what is primarily an agrarian economy. At the second stage, birthrates remain high because large families are an asset for agricultural production, which is still central in economies in the early phases of industrialization. This is a period of rapid population growth, given the widening gap between birthrates and death rates. In stage three, industrialization, urbanization, and the entry of women into the workforce decrease the incentives for large families. Birthrates fall and death 1 rates flatten as access to basic health care becomes nearly universal. Over time, economic development induces changes in the birthrate and death rate in society. It is during the intermediate stages of the demographic transition, when the decline in birthrate lags behind the decline in death rate, that population growth is most pronounced. Many countries are now in these stages of the transition, which accounts for the population explosion during the second half of the twentieth century. The last stage in the transition is marked by the stabilization of birthrates and death rates at fairly low levels. Different countries are at different stages in the demographic transition. The industrialized world as a whole has reached the final stage where both birthrates and death rates are at very low levels and doubling time is high. In the developing world, however, high birthrates combined with low death rates suggest that these countries are still in transition; they account not only for most of the world’s population but also for nearly all the world’s population growth.. To get a true picture of population growth, we have to consider the population composition of a country— the numbers of people in different age groups and the fertility rates for those categories. II. Resource Depletion. The inclusionist perspective of Malthusians has given rise to a common metaphor in environmental studies: spaceship Earth. [SPACESHIP EARTH: A metaphor likening the Earth to a spaceship with limited resources, in which humankind must learn to sustain itself without exhausting the ship’s reserv] Although we have made some initial forays along the ―final frontier,‖ it may be quite some time before we come across any supply depots or refuse dumps for spaceship Earth. A. Food Insecurity. The UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) estimates that 815 million people in the developing world suffer from chronic under-nutrition. The FAO estimates that over the next thirty years, the average annual increase in crop production will be 1.3 percent, down from 2.2 percent during the past thirty years. Four decades of increasing food production have not eliminated the problems of under-nutrition or even starvation. International food assistance is sometimes diverted by corrupt officials who sell the food for profit. Land reform and technical assistance to small farmers are receiving increasing attention by international lending organizations like the World Bank, but political and economic resistance to a major reorientation of agricultural development is nevertheless very great. International cooperation has also been channeled through the FAO and other agencies. Yet such activity—a world ―food regime‖—only begins to meet the problems. Enduring solutions also require an awareness of local political conditions and cultural practices, an effective population policy, and balanced economic development within and among the regions of the world. a. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), oldest permanent specialized agency of the United Nations i. established in October 1945 ii. the objective of FAO is eliminating hunger and improving nutrition and standards of living by increasing agricultural productivity. iii. It coordinates the efforts of governments and technical agencies in programs for developing agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and land and water resources. iv. It carries out research; provides technical assistance on projects in individual countries; operates educational programs through seminars and training centres; 2 v. It maintains information and support services, including keeping statistics on world production, trade, and consumption of agricultural commodities; and publishes a number of periodicals, yearbooks, and research bulletins. vi. Headquarters in Rome, Italy, the FAO maintains offices throughout the world. vii. It which has more than 180 members, is governed by the biennial FAO conference, in which each member country, as well as the European Union, is represented. The conference elects a 49-member Council, which serves as its executive organ. In the late 20th century the FAO gradually became more decentralized, with about half its personnel working in field offices. viii. During the 1960s the FAO concentrated on programs for the development of high-yield strains of grain, the
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