PSYB10H3 Lecture Notes - Lecture 3: Forego, Hindsight Bias, Observational Error
Document Summary
Decisions are easier when we can predict the future. We can best predict the future by making sound inferences. When we are designing better ways to make judgments and decisions, we have to understand which errors people typically make. Heuristics mental shortcuts/rules of thumb for making judgments. Heuristics are good enough much of the time. We are more likely to overestimate the likelihood, frequency, and causal impact of things that: have come to mind frequently or recently. Insanity plea in murder trials most think it is used a lot, but actually used less than 1% of the time. It comes to mind because you see it on tv. Apple"s distinct headphones make it easy to keep the image in your head. Hearing only about lots of people getting rich by investing in real estate makes it seem impossible for real estate values to decline.
