PSYC11H3 Lecture Notes - Lecture 3: Life Insurance, Prime Rate, Fallacy
Document Summary
Lecture 03: statistical intuitions ii/ heuristics and biases. Results: average gpa increased from 2. 5 to 2. 9, average who were not enrolled showed a decrease in gpa. : (cid:455)ou did(cid:374)"t ha(cid:448)e a (cid:272)o(cid:374)t(cid:396)ol g(cid:396)oup, it looks like everybody is st(cid:396)uggli(cid:374)g so (cid:455)ou (cid:272)a(cid:374)"t really compare the correlation accurately: be(cid:272)ause (cid:449)e do(cid:374)"t ha(cid:448)e a (cid:272)o(cid:374)t(cid:396)ol g(cid:396)oup (cid:449)e do(cid:374)"t k(cid:374)o(cid:449) the li(cid:373)it of the pe(cid:396)fo(cid:396)(cid:373)a(cid:374)(cid:272)e. If we could predict may to april all points would follow diago(cid:374)al li(cid:374)e, (cid:271)ut the(cid:455) do(cid:374)"t (cid:271)e(cid:272)ause the(cid:455)"(cid:396)e (cid:374)ois(cid:455) aspe(cid:272)ts. If they were below the median april: you seem to be increasing in performance. If you were above the median in april: you seem to be to have a decrease in performance. The is believed that: performance is regressive, good performance = decrease in performance later, bad performance = increase in performance later. Every correlation is negative: good performers tend to decline; bad performers tend to improve.
