PSYC11H3 Lecture Notes - Lecture 5: Dont, Cognitive Bias, Bayes Estimator
Document Summary
We fail to appreciate what life is like for those who don not share our knowledge or perspective. Once an outcome has occurred, we overestimate the likelihood that we would have predicted that outcome in advance. Consequences: outcomes seem less surprising than they should be. When we have private info, we expect the uninformed to behave as if they know what we know. It"s hard for e(cid:454)perts to i(cid:373)agi(cid:374)e (cid:449)hat life is like for (cid:374)o(cid:374)e(cid:454)perts. I will predict that reasonable people predicted errors were smaller than what the actual total was. We fail to appreciate what life is like for those who do not share our knowledge or perspective. When possible, evaluate based on process not outcome. This is difficult bias to undo retrospectively: decide in advance, getting data or diverse opinions is a way to sidestep this. Unwarranted confidence, arising from decision making errors. Robust: there are so many routes overconfidence can take over.
