PSYC11H3 Lecture Notes - Lecture 2: Shuffle Play, Mutual Fund, Data Mining
Document Summary
Scenario: imagine that you are playing the lottery and you can choose between 2 lottery tickets, each featuring 6 numbers. Ticket #1: 02 10 12 24 34 39. Ticket #2: 01 02 03 04 05 06. **we know if we do the math that those numbers of the tickets have equal probability of showing up,** We have a mental template of what is going to come up. We prefer the random, so when a lottery ticket draw is random, we have a template to predict that random numbers have better odds of being chosen. **when humans generate a random sequence, we expect a random process to make a change. We do(cid:374)"t put a lot of streaks for heads or tails. True randomness is more streaky than we think. General probability of streak is greater than 3 = . 39. Actual probability of streak is greater than 3 = . 63. We all share a stereotype of what chance looks like.
