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Lecture 11

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George Cree

PSYB57 Lecture 12 032612 Reasoning Decision Making and Problem Solving Deduction Claims or assertions then ask what follows form the premises Allows prediction and assessment of belief Questions 1 Does confirming evidence strengthen beliefs 2 Do we adjust beliefs if predictions are wrong 3 What evidence do we use to assess our beliefs if we are uncertain about themHow do we test hypotheses Wason 1966 Consider sequence 246 Determine the rules by proposing own triplets and receiving yesnoresponses Confirmation Bias Confirmatory evidence Do people better remember disconfirming evidence Disconfirmatory is more insightful ie confirm biasevaluating evidenceAttention can be drawn to certain things to confirm or refute hypothesis With disconfirming evidence things get interesting and kickstart thoughts and processes to discount accounts to hypotheses Why is it counted Why does these results counter what I hypothesizedWhy confirmation bias Are people just not logical in their thinking Many people have proposed that people are logical in their thinking and that errors come from carelessness misreading etc Boole and Piaget etc A commonly used tool for studying this is categorical syllogism ie All A are B All B are C Therefore all A are CWhat kinds of errors do people make and why 1 Belief Bias ie all doctors go to med school All med school are hard Therefore all doctors are hard Preexisting beliefs in temporal lobe follow of gardenpath mechanism 2 Matching Strategy ie All A are B All D are B Therefore all A are D Consistency in premises we are more likely to see them as sound conclusions even more with some statementsfamiliarity in premisesHow can we overcome these errors Venn diagrams Take premises and draw them Does content matter ie If a card has a vowel on one side it must have an even number on the other side A is the best answerminimum number 6407what do you have to find to disconfirm the 7 ie If a person is drinking beer then the person needs to be19 years old flip over the card the minimum number of cardsthat doesnt follow the rule Decision Making Expected Utility Model they try to follow steps1 Evaluate each course of action under its consideration by multiplying the utility of each of its consequence by its probability of occurrence subjectivity utility what does it mean to you A lot or little 2 Add these weighted values to create summary evaluation of each alternative 3 Choose the course of action with high expected utilityNeural Bases of Expected Utility Calculations Newsome 1997 Describes technique developed in 198s for the studying decision making in monkeys
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