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SOCA02H3 (398)


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Sheldon Ungar

 Demography o 1850: Population was 1 billion  Limited by starvation, disease and war o 2000: Population was 6 billion  14 century: —population dips from famine to black death)  How many is too many? o The Malthus Theorem: if births go unchecked, the population will outstrip the food supply  Food supply would fall below population. Population geometric and vice versa  Population Determinants: o Fertility (2.1=replacement level) o Mortality—deaths o Migration  people moving in and out  First Population Explosion o Takes place in the West; tied to industrialization in the West o Explained by: demographic transition  Demographic Transition Theory o Diagram in book o There’s a critical gap: birth rates going up and death rate falling nd  2 Population Explosion o Post WW2 in the “South”  Peaks in 1970s  Without sophisticated medicine, most of them wouldn’t surviveoh  Lead to predictions of 16 billion or more  2 population problems o North: aging populations  Consequences: o South: Malthusian scenarios  Unsustainable growth:  South: Surprise reversal o Population growth starts to decline in late 1970s  Fertility rate drops from 6-4 in two decades (2.1=stable population)  BUT: Demographic momentum o These kids are going to reproduce too  Political Agenda: population on and off the agenda o 1960s moral panic  Limits to growth Ur  Population bomb  Paul Ehrlich vs. Julian Simon (economists)  Population Impact Formula o = size X affluence X technology o Size 
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