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Lecture 2

Lecture 2 - Research & Globalization

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Malcolm Mac Kinnon

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Lecture 2y Teenage pregnancy and divorce have been increasing over the same period of timedescriptive study y Now can we make this an explanatory study by correlating the divorce and pregnancy rates y Make hypothesis that as one increases the other does too y Hypotheses are explanatory looking at relationships between the two y Must identify each variable y Must be able to change the value of the independent statusmarried and divorced manipulation y Independent variable is marital status y Dependent marriage is stabley 4 cell contingency tableMARRIED DIVORCE TEEN PREGNANCY YES100 25 75 NO100 75 25 100100 y CONFIRMS hypothesis y But NOT a perfect relationship but it is statistically significant relationship between the variables in question y Positive relationship between divorce rates and teen pregnancy y 3 types of statistical correlation1 Positive correlation as the value of the IV increases the DV also increases in value 2 Negative correlation a decrease in IV produces an increase in the DV 3 No correlation straight line no relationship found between a IV that was manipulated and a DV y Spurious correlation when we find that two variables are correlated but the correlation is spuriousnot realand something else is causing the correlation y Hospitals and the home more people die in the hospitalso do hospitals cause death or is it spurious and something else involved o Probably spurious o Because we find sick people at hospitals o So we perform a control remove all the sick people that are already live in the hospital because you dont find those people living at home if you recalculate this without the sick people the correlation disappears o And if the correlation disappears then you immediately know that something else is causing the relationship the people you took out from the hospital are already sick to begin with y May need to introduce controls to find the real relationshipy No real relationship between hospitals and death y Global Warming o True relationship between rising CO and warming of the temperature 2o Global warming is caused by sun spotsspots that are darker and hotter areas on the sun o During the Little Ice Age there were virtually no sun spots which means the sun is cooler o In 197088 largeof sun spots and temp went up
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