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SOCA02H3 (398)


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University of Toronto Scarborough
Malcolm Mac Kinnon

Chapter 20: Population & Urbanization POPULATION The City of God  Rio de Janeiro City, Brazil → 1 of world’s most beautiful cities o Pop: 12M, however, it is characterized by inequality of wealth o Slums (tight housing on hills) are home to 20% of inhabitants o Called “the City of God”→ houses made of cardboard, scraps of tin, rats run, roofs leak o Crime is survival, many drug traffickers  Movie Cidade de Deus → chronicles gang wars of the 1970s & 80s o Each generation of drug traffickers starts younger than its predecessor o Escaping poverty is possible  Brazil now as urbanized as Canada→ ¾ of pop living in urban areas  Population growth is governed less by natural laws than by social forces o Social forces are NOT only related to industrialization, but social inequality plays a major role  40 yrs ago, sociologists believed that cities were alienating & anomic (normless) o Only an oversimplification The Population “Explosion”  1804→ pop 1 billion  1999→ pop 6 billion  2006 → pop 6.52 billion  By 2100 → pop 10 billion, pop will level off  Pg 600 graph—  We’re now in the midst of population explosion (fast & unstoppable horrifying events)  Demographers: analysts of human population  Main purpose of demography → why size, geographical distribution & social composition of human populations change over time  Equation of pop change: + B – D + I – E o = pop size @ a given time  = pop size @ an earlier time o = # of births  D = # of deaths o I = # of immigrants arriving  E = # of emigrants leaving  Basic tool for analyzing pop composition→ “age-sex” pyramid o Shows the # of males & females in each age cohort of the pop @ a given time  Concerns about pop “bomb” is as old as the social sciences The Malthusian Trap  Thomas Robert Malthus → proposed highly influential theory of human population  Theory rests on 2 facts: 1) People must eat; 2) People driven by a strong sexual urge 1  1 assumption→ although the food supply increases slowly & arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4, etc), population size grows quickly & geometrically (1, 2, 4, 8, etc)  Concluded that “the superior power of pop cannot be checked w/out producing misery or vice” Malak Patel | Chapter 20  Only 2 forces can hold population growth in check o 1 are “preventive” measures → abortion, infanticide, prostitution (*vices*) nd o 2 are “positive checks” → war, pestilence, famine o Malthus felt positive checks are only forces that can be allowed to control pop growth  Malthusian Trap: a cycle of population growth, followed by an outbreak of war, pestilence, or famine keeps population growth in check o Pop size may fluctuate, but it has a natural upper limit that Western Europe has reached  Opponents of Malthus’s theory o Reviled him as a misguided prophet of doom and gloom o Ppl who wanted to help the poor disagreed  Malthus felt welfare was counterproductive o Ppl will buy more food→ will have more children→ will make them poorer than before! A Critique of Malthus  Technological advances have allowed rapid growth in food production  Unclear what the natural upper limit is, limits are ↑er than Malthus expected  Some populations are large yet prosperous (ex. Western Europe)  Some countries provide social welfare & still maintain low pop growth rates o In fact, some social welfare decreases in pop growth, esp in developing countries  Use of contraception to control consequences of sexual activity  Conclusion: Malthus’s pessimism was overstated, we are now free of Malthusian trap for the time being o However, industrialization & pop growth putting strains on planet’s resources Demographic Transition Theory  Explains how changes in fertility & mortality affected pop growth  Main factors underlying pop dynamics are industrialization & modern cultural values  Based on observation that European pop developed in 4 stages from Pre-Ind to Post-Ind The Pre-Industrial Period  A large % of pop died from inadequate nutrition, poor hygiene, diseases  Crude death rate: annual # of deaths (mortality) per 1000 ppl o Was HIGH!  Crude birth rate: annual # of live births per 1000 people o Was HIGH too! The Early Industrial Period (transition period)  Crude death rate dropped b/c ppl’s life expectancy ↑ due to improved hygiene & nutrition  Crude birth rate remained high  Malthus lived during this period The Mature Industrial Period  Crude death rate continued to fall 2  Crude birth rate fell dramatically (children more of an economic burden)  Birth rate took longer to ↓ b/c ppl’s values change SLOWLY than technologies o Faster to put in water purification plant than to change their mindset about their children  Population stabilized Malak Patel | Chapter 20 The Post-Industrial Period  total fertility rate: avg # of children born to a woman over her lifetime if she had the same # of children as women in her age cohort  Fertility rate continued to FALL  Replacement level: # of children each woman must have on avg (2.1) for pop to remain stable  Immigration: inflow of settlers from other countries  Emigration: outflow of residents to other countries  Canada → fertility rate of 1.5  In this stage, # of deaths EXCEEDS # of births per year  Reductions in fertility sometimes occur when standards of living decline, NOT only b/c of industrialization o Aside from industrialization, level of social inequality [gender/class] affects pop growth Population & Social Inequality Karl Marx  Malthus’s opponent  Argued that the problem of overpopulation is specific to capitalism  Overpop is not a problem of too many ppl, it is a problem of too much POVERTY  Capitalism can never generate enough prosperity to solve overpop problem Gender Inequality & Overpopulation  Illustrated by the case of Kerala, India  Kerala had fertility rate of 1.8 b/c their gov’t raised women’s status over a period of decades  Gov;t organized programs to educate women, and ↑ participation in paid labour force  Resulted in Keralian women enjoying ↑ literacy rate, ↑ parti in LF & political matters  Keralan women wanted small families b/c of their desire to work  Gov’t solved overpopulation problem by lowering level of gender inequality Class Inequality & Overpopulation  Illustrated by the case of South Korea  South Korea→ in 1960→ fertility of 6.0  By 2003 → dropped to 1.2  Why? B/c of land reform, industrialization, urbanization, higher educational attainment o (taking land from big landowners, giving it to small farmers)  Increasing social inequality can lead to overpopulation, war, famine o Ex) El Salvador & Honduras  Famine → some ppl not having enough food to eat, not there not being enough food to eat o The source of famine is not underpopulation or overpopulation but INEQUALITY of access to food Summing Up  Pop growth do not stem from natural causes alone (Malthus theory) nor only b/c of industrialization (demo transition theory), but influenced by social inequality 3 Malak Patel | Chapter 20 URBANIZATION  Overpop an urban problem  Driven by lack of economic opp in the countryside, political unrest, ppl flocking to big cities  Most of fastest-growing cities are in semi-industrial countries  By 2015, world’s biggest cities will be in Asia, Africa, Latin America—only 1 will be in industrial country-Tokyo  8/10 Canadians reside in cities From the Pre-Industrial to the Industrial City  Urbanization results from industrialization (to a degree) o Connection weak in less developed countries st  Cities 1 emerged in Syria, Mesopotamia & Egypt→ before growth of modern factory  Not industrialization, but international trade that stim
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