ARH312Y1 Lecture : Probability, Evaluation Hypotheses and Modeling
Document Summary
Uncertainty: uncertainty applies to measurements hypotheses and explanations, we express uncertainties with probabilities. Probabilities are like proportions: used to quantify uncertainty, when they analyze their data, compare to past history of circumstances with known. Addition rule: when outcomes are independent and mutually exclusive, we can add their probabilities. P(a or b) = a + b = . 35. Probability of pulling king of spades: 1/13 x 1/4 = 1/52: multiplication works in deck of cards because suit is independent of card value. Archaeological laboratories: banning, when a and b are independent outcomes. Summing: p(a or b) = p(a)+p(b) - p(a and b, probability of getting king or heart, subtract probability of getting king and heart. P(b|a)xp(a) = p(a and b) = p(b) x p(a) when independent. P(a|b) = p(a and b)/p(b: the proportion of outcomes in b that are also in a (overlap area, this is the bayes theorem bad bayesian analysis, when outcomes might not be independent:
